| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
| Composite Index | 48.5 | 48.5 to 48.5 | 49.7 | 52.6 |
| Services Index | 47.9 | 47.9 to 47.9 | 49.3 | 52.7 |
Highlights
The latest UK PMI data suggest that the UK economy lost momentum in May 2026, with private sector activity returning to contraction for the first time in 13 months. The composite PMI fell sharply from 52.6 in April to 49.7, signalling the weakest private sector performance since April 2025. The downturn was driven primarily by the services sector, which more than offset continued growth in manufacturing output.
The services PMI declined from 52.7 to 49.3, reflecting a marginal contraction in output. Businesses reported weaker consumer spending, heightened economic and political uncertainty, and reduced business investment. Demand was particularly subdued in travel, tourism, and leisure-related activities, while concerns surrounding the Middle East conflict contributed to delayed spending decisions and softer export sales.
Labour market conditions also weakened, with firms reducing staffing levels in response to declining workloads and elevated wage costs. Employment fell at the fastest pace since February, while backlogs of work were depleted at the quickest rate since November 2025.
Inflationary pressures remained a significant challenge. Input costs continued to rise sharply due to higher energy, fuel, transportation, technology, and wage expenses. Although output price inflation eased slightly from April's peak, businesses continued to pass higher costs onto customers.
Overall, the data point to a slowing UK economy characterised by weaker demand, declining employment, and persistent inflationary pressures, while business confidence fell to its lowest level in over a year.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
No revisions expected from the flash at 48.5 for the composite and 47.9 for services.
Definition
The Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) provides an estimate of service sector business activity for the preceding month by using information obtained from a representative sector survey incorporating transport and communication, financial intermediation, business services, personal services, computing and IT and hotels and restaurants. Results are synthesised into a single index which can range between zero and 100. A reading above (below) 50 signals rising (falling) activity versus the previous month and the closer to 100 (zero) the faster is activity growing (contracting). The data are compiled by the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply (CIPS) and S&P Global.
Description
Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the ISM non-manufacturing index in the U.S. and the S&P Global PMIs elsewhere, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly and causing potential inflationary pressures.
The S&P Global PMI services data give a detailed look at the services sector, how busy it is and where things are headed. The indexes are widely used by businesses, governments and economic analysts in financial institutions to help better understand business conditions and guide corporate and investment strategy. In particular, central banks in many countries use the data to help make interest rate decisions. PMI surveys are the first indicators of economic conditions published each month and are therefore available well ahead of comparable data produced by government bodies.