| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
| Composite Index | 52.0 | 52.0 to 52.0 | 52.6 | 50.3 |
| Services Index | 52.0 | 52.0 to 52.0 | 52.7 | 50.5 |
Highlights
The latest UK PMI data suggests that the British economy remains resilient but increasingly vulnerable to intensifying cost pressures and geopolitical disruptions. The composite PMI rose to 52.6 in April from 50.3 in March, indicating a moderate expansion in private sector activity, supported by improvements in both manufacturing output and service sector performance. However, beneath the headline growth figures, the report reveals mounting stagflationary risks.
The most striking development was the sharp acceleration in input cost inflation, which climbed to its highest level since November 2022. Rising fuel prices, wage pressures, and higher raw material costs particularly for metals and plastics significantly increased operational expenses across firms. Businesses responded by raising output charges at the fastest pace since January 2023, suggesting renewed inflationary transmission into the broader economy.
Demand conditions, however, remained fragile. Export sales weakened sharply due to disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict, while elevated borrowing costs and weak consumer sentiment constrained new orders. Employment continued to decline, although at a slower pace, reflecting cautious labour market adjustments amid subdued business confidence.
Overall, while resilience in technology services and domestic activity prevented contraction, geopolitical uncertainty and rising costs continue to threaten the sustainability of the recovery. These latest updates take the RPI to 52 and the RPI-P to 56, meaning that economic activities continue to outpace market expectations in the UK.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The consensus looks for no revision from the flash at 52.0 for the April composite final versus 50.3 in March. For services, no revision expected from 52.0 in the flash versus 50.5 in March.
Definition
The Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) provides an estimate of service sector business activity for the preceding month by using information obtained from a representative sector survey incorporating transport and communication, financial intermediation, business services, personal services, computing and IT and hotels and restaurants. Results are synthesised into a single index which can range between zero and 100. A reading above (below) 50 signals rising (falling) activity versus the previous month and the closer to 100 (zero) the faster is activity growing (contracting). The data are compiled by the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply (CIPS) and S&P Global.
Description
Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the ISM non-manufacturing index in the U.S. and the S&P Global PMIs elsewhere, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly and causing potential inflationary pressures.
The S&P Global PMI services data give a detailed look at the services sector, how busy it is and where things are headed. The indexes are widely used by businesses, governments and economic analysts in financial institutions to help better understand business conditions and guide corporate and investment strategy. In particular, central banks in many countries use the data to help make interest rate decisions. PMI surveys are the first indicators of economic conditions published each month and are therefore available well ahead of comparable data produced by government bodies.