| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
| Composite Index | 51.0 | 50.7 to 51.0 | 50.3 | 53.7 |
| Services Index | 51.2 | 51.2 to 51.2 | 50.5 | 53.9 |
Highlights
The UK economy appears to be losing momentum sharply, with the composite PMI falling to 50.3just above the threshold of contraction. This signals a fragile expansion, increasingly vulnerable to external shocks.
The slowdown is broad-based but most visible in services, where activity has weakened to its lowest level in nearly a year. The renewed decline in new business, both domestic and export, suggests that demand is softening under the weight of geopolitical uncertainty, particularly the Middle East conflict. Firms report delayed investment decisions and reduced client confidence, pointing to a cautious economic environment.
At the same time, cost pressures are intensifying. Input price inflation has surged to its highest since early 2023, driven largely by fuel, transport, and wage increases. However, unlike a demand-driven expansion, this cost escalation is eroding margins rather than supporting growth. Labour market signals reinforce this fragility as employment continues to decline, albeit modestly, reflecting excess capacity and cost containment strategies.
In summary, the UK is navigating a low-growth, high-cost environment, where weak demand, rising inflationary pressures, and declining confidence create a delicate and uncertain outlook for the months ahead. These latest updates take the RPI to minus 10, and the RPI-P to minus 12. This means that economic activities continue to perform within the expectations of the UK economy based on the RPI.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The consensus sees no revision in the final composite index from the flash at 51.0 for March versus 53.7 in February. The consensus also sees no revision in the final services index from the flash at 51.2 for March versus 53.9 in February.
Definition
The Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) provides an estimate of service sector business activity for the preceding month by using information obtained from a representative sector survey incorporating transport and communication, financial intermediation, business services, personal services, computing and IT and hotels and restaurants. Results are synthesised into a single index which can range between zero and 100. A reading above (below) 50 signals rising (falling) activity versus the previous month and the closer to 100 (zero) the faster is activity growing (contracting). The data are compiled by the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply (CIPS) and S&P Global.
Description
Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the ISM non-manufacturing index in the U.S. and the S&P Global PMIs elsewhere, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly and causing potential inflationary pressures.
The S&P Global PMI services data give a detailed look at the services sector, how busy it is and where things are headed. The indexes are widely used by businesses, governments and economic analysts in financial institutions to help better understand business conditions and guide corporate and investment strategy. In particular, central banks in many countries use the data to help make interest rate decisions. PMI surveys are the first indicators of economic conditions published each month and are therefore available well ahead of comparable data produced by government bodies.