| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
| Composite Index | 53.9 | 53.9 to 53.9 | 53.7 | 51.4 |
| Services Index | 54.3 | 54.2 to 54.3 | 54.0 | 51.4 |
Highlights
The January PMI data point to a clear rebound in UK private sector momentum, led decisively by services. The composite PMI jumped to 53.7, its strongest reading since mid-2024, signalling a meaningful acceleration in activity after a subdued end to last year. Services were the main engine of this upturn, with output growth reaching a five-month high of 54.0, as improved client confidence, new project starts, and post-Budget investment sentiment lifted demand.
Encouragingly, new business flows strengthened, supported by higher domestic spending intentions and modest export gains, particularly to Europe. Increased digital marketing budgets and investment in new technologies also underpinned order books, suggesting a more structurally grounded recovery rather than a short-lived bounce.
Yet the recovery remains imbalanced. Employment continued to contract at an accelerated pace, marking the longest stretch of job shedding in 16 years. Firms appear to be prioritising productivity and cost control, with automation and non-replacement of leavers reflecting margin pressures rather than weak demand.
Inflation dynamics remain challenging. Despite a slight easing in input cost growth, prices charged rose sharply, driven by higher payroll and technology costs. Overall, the latest data depict a services-led recovery with improving confidence, but one constrained by labour retrenchment and persistent cost pressures. This takes the RPI to 42 and the RPI-P to 41, meaning that economic activities continue to outpace expectations in the UK economy.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
No revision expected in the composite final from the flash at 53.9. No change expected in services final from the flash either at 54.3.
Definition
The Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) provides an estimate of service sector business activity for the preceding month by using information obtained from a representative sector survey incorporating transport and communication, financial intermediation, business services, personal services, computing and IT and hotels and restaurants. Results are synthesised into a single index which can range between zero and 100. A reading above (below) 50 signals rising (falling) activity versus the previous month and the closer to 100 (zero) the faster is activity growing (contracting). The data are compiled by the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply (CIPS) and S&P Global.
Description
Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the ISM non-manufacturing index in the U.S. and the S&P Global PMIs elsewhere, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly and causing potential inflationary pressures.
The S&P Global PMI services data give a detailed look at the services sector, how busy it is and where things are headed. The indexes are widely used by businesses, governments and economic analysts in financial institutions to help better understand business conditions and guide corporate and investment strategy. In particular, central banks in many countries use the data to help make interest rate decisions. PMI surveys are the first indicators of economic conditions published each month and are therefore available well ahead of comparable data produced by government bodies.