| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
| Composite Index | 51.5 | 51.2 to 52.1 | 52.5 | 52.1 |
| Manufacturing Index | 51.5 | 51.5 to 52.0 | 51.5 | 52.8 |
| Services Index | 52.0 | 51.0 to 52.0 | 52.8 | 51.8 |
Highlights
UK private-sector growth gained modest momentum in August 2026, with the composite PMI rising from 52.2 to a four-month high of 52.5. The expansion was led by services, whose activity index reached a six-month high of 52.8, supported by improving client confidence and stronger domestic spending. Manufacturing, however, lost momentum as its PMI fell to 51.5, while manufacturing output declined sharply from 52.9 to 51.2, reflecting geopolitical uncertainty, weaker exports and elevated production costs.
Demand conditions improved, with new business growing at its fastest rate since February. Nevertheless, squeezed budgets and continued risk aversion restrained order books. Employment remained a concern as workforce reductions continued, although at their slowest rate since October 2025. The 23-month decline in service-sector employment suggests that firms are achieving output growth partly through labour restraint rather than substantial capacity expansion.
Inflationary pressures also intensified as higher fuel, transport, wage, food and utility costs raised both input and output prices. In summary, the economy showed greater resilience and improving confidence, but the combination of weakening manufacturing, persistent job losses and renewed cost pressures indicates that the recovery remains narrow, fragile and potentially inflationary. The latest update takes the RPI to 15 and the RPI-P to 26, meaning that economic activities continue to outperform market expectations in the UK.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The composite index is expected at 51.5 in the August flash versus 52.2 in the July final.
Definition
The flash Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) provides an early estimate of current private sector business activity by combining information obtained from surveys of the manufacturing and service sectors of the economy, around 650 companies in each case. The flash data are released around ten days ahead of the final report and are typically based upon around 75-85 percent of the full survey sample. Results covering a range of variables including manufacturing output, employment, new orders, backlogs and prices are synthesised into a single index which can range between zero and 100. A reading above (below) 50 signals rising (falling) activity versus the previous month and the closer to 100 (zero) the faster is activity growing (contracting). The report also contains flash estimates of the manufacturing and services PMIs. The survey is produced by S&P Global.
Description
Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the purchasing managers' surveys, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The flash PMIs are particularly closely watched as they provide a wide ranging look at economic developments and some of the most up to date information available. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly and causing potential inflationary pressures.