| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
| Composite Index | 49.7 | 49.7 to 50.4 | 52.1 | 49.4 |
| Manufacturing Index | 52.0 | 52.0 to 52.0 | 52.8 | 53.1 |
| Services Index | 49.4 | 49.3 to 50.0 | 51.8 | 48.7 |
Highlights
The UK private sector returned to expansion in July 2026, with the composite PMI rising sharply from 49.3 to a three-month high of 52.1. Growth was broad-based, as services recovered to 51.8 (a three-month high), while manufacturing reached a two-month high of 52.8 and manufacturing output reached a 22-month high of 53.6.
Manufacturing provided the stronger momentum. Order books improved at their fastest pace since February 2022, supported by artificial-intelligence investment, data-centre supply chains, defence expenditure and stronger US and European demand. Services also benefited from increased hospitality and consumer activity associated with the FIFA World Cup, although this contribution may be temporary.
Despite stronger output, the recovery remains fragile. Total new work increased only marginally, backlogs declined for a thirty-ninth consecutive month and private-sector employment continued to fall. These conditions indicate that spare capacity persists, particularly in services. Falling pre-production inventories may also weaken firms’ resilience to renewed supply disruptions. The moderation in input-cost inflation, aided by lower fuel and raw-material costs, offers some relief, although wage, technology and logistics expenses remain elevated.
In summary, the economy has moved from contraction to cautious growth, but sustained recovery will require broader demand, renewed employment creation and reduced geopolitical uncertainty. These updates take the RPI to 42 and the RPI-P to 52, meaning that economic activities continue to outperform market expectations in the UK.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The composite flash is expected marginally in contraction at 49.7 in July, up from 49.3 in the June final.
Definition
The flash Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) provides an early estimate of current private sector business activity by combining information obtained from surveys of the manufacturing and service sectors of the economy, around 650 companies in each case. The flash data are released around ten days ahead of the final report and are typically based upon around 75-85 percent of the full survey sample. Results covering a range of variables including manufacturing output, employment, new orders, backlogs and prices are synthesised into a single index which can range between zero and 100. A reading above (below) 50 signals rising (falling) activity versus the previous month and the closer to 100 (zero) the faster is activity growing (contracting). The report also contains flash estimates of the manufacturing and services PMIs. The survey is produced by S&P Global.
Description
Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the purchasing managers' surveys, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The flash PMIs are particularly closely watched as they provide a wide ranging look at economic developments and some of the most up to date information available. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly and causing potential inflationary pressures.