| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
| Composite Index | 51.5 | 51.5 to 51.5 | 53.9 | 52.1 |
| Manufacturing Index | 50.7 | 49.5 to 51.7 | 51.6 | 51.2 |
| Services Index | 51.7 | 51.5 to 52.4 | 54.3 | 52.1 |
Highlights
UK private sector activity recorded its strongest expansion since April 2024, signalling a notably improved start to 2026. The composite PMI rose sharply to 53.9, a 21-month high, reflecting broad-based growth supported by accelerating demand and renewed business confidence. Services led the upturn, with activity expanding at its fastest pace in nearly two years, as post-Budget clarity released delayed projects and encouraged client investment.
Manufacturing conditions also strengthened. Output rose for the fourth consecutive month, reaching a 17-month high, aided by customer restocking and a meaningful recovery in export demand. Notably, overseas orders increased at the fastest rate in eighteen months, with manufacturers reporting stronger demand from Europe, the United States, China and emerging markets.
New orders expanded at their quickest pace since late 2024, reinforcing optimism about the year ahead. Business sentiment improved for a second month, reaching its highest level since September 2024, supported by expectations of lower borrowing costs and firmer sales pipelines.
However, underlying pressures persist. Employment fell at an accelerated pace, particularly in services, as firms responded to rising wage bills and fragile productivity conditions. Elevated input costs continued to feed through into prices, resulting in the fastest increase in output charges since August 2025. Overall, the latest data depict a strengthening recovery constrained by inflationary and labour-market challenges, taking the RPI and RPI-P to 49. Meaning that economic activities continue to outperform expectations in the UK.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Composite seen at 51.5 versus 51.4, manufacturing at 50.7 versus 50.6, and services at 51.7 versus 51.4.
Definition
The flash Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) provides an early estimate of current private sector business activity by combining information obtained from surveys of the manufacturing and service sectors of the economy, around 650 companies in each case. The flash data are released around ten days ahead of the final report and are typically based upon around 75-85 percent of the full survey sample. Results covering a range of variables including manufacturing output, employment, new orders, backlogs and prices are synthesised into a single index which can range between zero and 100. A reading above (below) 50 signals rising (falling) activity versus the previous month and the closer to 100 (zero) the faster is activity growing (contracting). The report also contains flash estimates of the manufacturing and services PMIs. The survey is produced by S&P Global.
Description
Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the purchasing managers' surveys, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The flash PMIs are particularly closely watched as they provide a wide ranging look at economic developments and some of the most up to date information available. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly and causing potential inflationary pressures.