| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
| Month over Month | 0.3% | 0.1% to 0.3% | 1.8% | 0.4% | |
| Year over Year | 2.4% | 2.1% to 2.8% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.9% |
Highlights
January's retail data demonstrated that sales volumes rose by 1.8 percent, the strongest monthly gain since May 2024, and annual growth reached 4.5 percent, suggesting renewed momentum after late-2025 volatility. Yet this rebound was disproportionately driven by niche, high-value segments such as artwork, antiques, and online jewellery, indicating that discretionary luxury demand rather than mass-market consumption powered the expansion.
Structural signals complicate the headline. Volumes remain flat relative to February 2020 levels, implying that real retail activity has effectively stagnated over the medium term. Meanwhile, above-average rainfall reduced physical footfall, reinforcing the continuing shift towards digital channels. Online sales rose 14.7 percent year-over-year, the fastest pace since April 2021, though their share of total spending edged down slightly, suggesting that in-store spending recovered modestly rather than e-commerce weakening.
In summary, the latest updates provides evidence of a retail sector supported by episodic demand spikes and sectoral strength, not a uniform consumption upswing. The underlying trend is one of selective expansion within a still-fragile demand environment, where growth remains sensitive to behavioural shifts, weather effects, and high-income discretionary spending patterns.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Sales expected up 0.3 percent on the month and 2.4 percent on year in January after rising 0.4 percent and 2.5 percent in December.
Definition
Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods. The data include all internet business whose primary function is retailing and also cover internet sales by other British retailers, such as online sales by supermarkets, department stores and catalogue companies. Headline UK retail sales are reported in volume, not cash, terms but are available in both forms. The data are derived from a monthly survey of 5,000 businesses in Great Britain. The sample represents the whole retail sector and includes the 900 largest retailers and a representative panel of smaller businesses, including internet sales. Collectively, all of these businesses cover approximately 90 percent of the retail industry in terms of turnover.
Description
With consumer spending a large part of the economy, market players continually monitor spending patterns. The monthly retail sales report contains sales data in both pounds sterling and volume. UK retail sales data exclude auto sales.
The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth.
Retail sales not only give you a sense of the big picture, but also the trends among different types of retailers. Perhaps apparel sales are showing exceptional weakness but electronics sales are soaring. These trends from the retail sales data can help you spot specific investment opportunities, without having to wait for a company's quarterly or annual report.