| Actual | Previous | Revised | |
| Balance | £-18.79B | £-14.45B | £-15.08B |
| Imports - M/M | 4.7% | -0.6% | -1.9% |
| Imports - Y/Y | -2.9% | 3.6% | -0.1% |
| Exports - M/M | -3.9% | 6.7% | 12.0% |
| Exports - Y/Y | -1.1% | -0.9% | 5.3% |
Highlights
The February 2026 trade data reveals a divergent external sector, shaped by weakening goods performance but sustained strength in services. Goods imports rose sharply by 4.7 percent (£2.3 billion), signalling resilient domestic demand, while exports declined by 3.9 percent (£1.36 billion), pointing to softening external demand across both EU and non-EU markets.
A notable exception is the United States, where exports surged by 11.3 percent, suggesting market-specific competitiveness or favourable bilateral demand conditions. Simultaneously, imports from the US fell, improving the bilateral trade position.
At the aggregate level, the overall trade deficit widened to £18.79 billion, from a revised £15.08 billion the previous month.
Over the year, exports fell by 1.1 percent while imports fell by 2.9 percent. Moreover, the goods deficit widened significantly, reflecting structural weaknesses in the UK's goods sector, including competitiveness and production constraints.
Conversely, the services surplus expanded, effectively offsetting much of the goods imbalance. This demonstrates the UK's continued reliance on high-value service exports, such as finance and professional services, as the primary stabiliser of its external position.
Indeed, the latest report highlights a two-speed trade structure, where strong services performance mitigates, but does not fully resolve, persistent goods sector vulnerabilities.
Definition
The merchandise trade balance measures the difference between imports and exports of goods. The level of the international trade balance, as well as changes in exports and imports, indicate trends in foreign trade and can offer a guide to an economy's competitiveness. Data are supplied by over 30 sources including several administrative sources, HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) being the largest.
Description
Changes in the level of imports and exports, along with the difference between the two (the trade balance) are a valuable gauge of economic trends here and abroad. While these trade figures can directly impact all financial markets, they primarily affect currency values in foreign exchange markets.
Imports indicate demand for foreign goods and services in the UK. Exports show the demand for UK goods in countries overseas. The pound sterling can be particularly sensitive to changes in the trade deficit run by the United Kingdom, since the trade shortfalls create greater net demand for foreign currencies. The bond market is also sensitive to the risk of importing inflation. This report gives a breakdown of trade with major countries as well, so it can be instructive for investors who are interested in diversifying globally. For example, a trend of accelerating exports to a particular country might signal economic strength and investment opportunities in that country.
The UK's trade balance is particularly susceptible to swings in the oil account and so within the overall goods balance, financial markets will normally focus on the balance excluding oil and other erratic items.