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DE: Manufacturing Orders
| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
| Month over Month | 2.5% | 1.0% to 8.0% | 0.9% | -11.1% | |
| Year over Year | 5.0% | 5.0% to 5.5% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 0.6% |
Highlights
The February 2026 manufacturing data presents a fragile and uneven recovery rather than a broad-based expansion. While new orders rose modestly by 0.9 percent month-over-month, this follows a sharp contraction in January (minus 11.1 percent), suggesting that February's growth is largely a partial rebound effect rather than a sustained upward trend.
Sectoral dynamics reveal a highly skewed recovery. Growth is driven predominantly by the automotive sector (3.8 percent) and an exceptional surge in textiles (45.2 percent), indicating pockets of demand strength. However, the steep decline in other transport equipment (minus 25.9 percent) signals continued weakness in high-value, capital-intensive industries, which typically underpin long-term industrial stability.
The divergence between external and domestic demand is particularly striking. Foreign orders increased significantly (4.7 percent), especially within the euro area, while domestic orders contracted (minus 4.4 percent). This implies that manufacturing resilience is currently export-dependent, exposing the sector to external demand volatility.
Crucially, the decline in turnover (minus 0.5 percent) despite rising orders suggests a lag between demand and actual production/output realisation, possibly reflecting supply chain frictions or cautious inventory adjustments.
Overall, the data points to a tentative recovery with structural imbalances, where growth remains narrow, externally driven, and vulnerable to sector-specific shocks. These updates take the RPI to 1 and the RPI-P to minus 7, meaning that economic activities continue to perform within the expectations of the German economy.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Orders expected to rebound by 2.5 percent on the month in February after plunging by 11.1 percent in January. On year, sales seen up 5.0 percent after increasing 4.0 percent in January.
Definition
Manufacturers orders are a leading indicator for industrial production. The figures are calculated every month by the Federal Statistical Office and represent the value of all orders for the delivery of self-made products confirmed by industrial enterprises with 50 or more employees in the respective reporting period. The results are broken down by both sector and region of origin (domestic and foreign split into euro area and non-euro area). Monthly volatility can be very high so moving averages give a much better guide to underlying trends.
Description
Manufacturers orders data are keenly awaited by analysts each month. The data present a detailed breakdown by various sectors and a reading of the pulse of a major sector of the economy. Like the PPI, manufacturing orders data exclude construction, which is the preferred Eurostat measure.
The manufacturers orders data rank among the most important early indicators for monitoring and analyzing German economic wellbeing. Because these data are available for both foreign and domestic orders they are a good indication of the relative strength of the domestic and export economies. The results are compiled each month in the form of value indexes to measure the nominal development of demand and in the form of volume indexes to illustrate the price-adjusted development of demand. Unlike in the U.S., orders data are not collected for all manufacturing classifications - but only those parts in which the make-to-order production plays a prominent role. Not included are, for example, mining, quarrying and the food industry.