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DE: Manufacturing Orders
| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
| Month over Month | -5.0% | -10.0% to -3.0% | -11.1% | 7.8% | 6.4% |
| Year over Year | 13.1% | 12.0% to 13.2% | 4.0% | 12.6% | 11.2% |
Highlights
Germany's manufacturing sector began 2026 with a sharp correction in new orders, which fell 11.1 percent month-over-month in January after the exceptionally strong performance recorded in December 2025. The decline largely reflects a normalisation following a surge in large-scale orders at the end of last year rather than a sudden collapse in demand. When such orders are excluded, new orders declined by only 0.4 percent, underscoring the volatility associated with large contracts.
Sectoral dynamics reveal an uneven adjustment. Orders for fabricated metal products plunged by 39.4 percent, reversing a strong rise in December, while machinery (minus 13.5 percent) and basic metals (minus 15.1 percent) also weakened. In contrast, demand remained resilient in transport-related industries, with automotive orders increasing by 10.4 percent and other transport equipment by 9.2 percent, suggesting continued strength in mobility-related manufacturing.
From a demand perspective, capital goods orders fell by 14.1 percent and intermediate goods by 7.9 percent, signalling softer investment momentum. Domestic orders declined sharply (minus 16.2 percent), while foreign demand also weakened modestly.
Despite the drop in orders, manufacturing turnover increased by 1.5 percent in January, indicating that firms are still working through existing order backlogs. Overall, the data suggest a volatile but still moderately resilient manufacturing sector transitioning from late-2025 order surges into a more stable demand environment. These updates bring the RPI to minus 21 and the RPI-P to minus 11, indicating that economic activity continues to lag market expectations in Germany.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Sales volatility continues with sales seen down 5.0 percent on the month after a 7.8 percent jump in the previous month.
Definition
Manufacturers orders are a leading indicator for industrial production. The figures are calculated every month by the Federal Statistical Office and represent the value of all orders for the delivery of self-made products confirmed by industrial enterprises with 50 or more employees in the respective reporting period. The results are broken down by both sector and region of origin (domestic and foreign split into euro area and non-euro area). Monthly volatility can be very high so moving averages give a much better guide to underlying trends.
Description
Manufacturers orders data are keenly awaited by analysts each month. The data present a detailed breakdown by various sectors and a reading of the pulse of a major sector of the economy. Like the PPI, manufacturing orders data exclude construction, which is the preferred Eurostat measure.
The manufacturers orders data rank among the most important early indicators for monitoring and analyzing German economic wellbeing. Because these data are available for both foreign and domestic orders they are a good indication of the relative strength of the domestic and export economies. The results are compiled each month in the form of value indexes to measure the nominal development of demand and in the form of volume indexes to illustrate the price-adjusted development of demand. Unlike in the U.S., orders data are not collected for all manufacturing classifications - but only those parts in which the make-to-order production plays a prominent role. Not included are, for example, mining, quarrying and the food industry.