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DE: Manufacturing Orders
| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
| Month over Month | -2.5% | -3.0% to 1.5% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 5.7% |
| Year over Year | 12.6% | 0.0% | 10.5% |
Highlights
Manufacturing activity closed 2025 with strong momentum on the demand side, even as revenues lagged behind. Real new orders surged by 7.8 percent month-over-month in December and were 12.6 percent higher than a year earlier, confirming a broad-based recovery signal. The strength, however, was uneven.
A large part of the headline growth was driven by sizeable contracts in fabricated metal products and machinery, sectors that are closely linked to investment cycles. When these large-scale orders are excluded, monthly growth falls sharply to 0.9 percent, suggesting that underlying demand conditions are improving but remain fragile.
External demand also shows a split pattern as orders from outside the euro area rose strongly, while euro area demand softened, leaving domestic orders as the main short-term support.
Despite robust order inflows, turnover fell by 1.4 percent in December and declined over 2025 as a whole. This divergence implies delivery lags, capacity constraints, or pricing pressures that are delaying the translation of orders into realised output and revenue. These updates leaves the RPI at 29 and the RPI-P at 21, meaning that economic activities continue to outperform market expectations in Germany.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
After a big 5.6 percent jump in November, a retreat of 2.5 percent is the call for December, on the month.
Definition
Manufacturers orders are a leading indicator for industrial production. The figures are calculated every month by the Federal Statistical Office and represent the value of all orders for the delivery of self-made products confirmed by industrial enterprises with 50 or more employees in the respective reporting period. The results are broken down by both sector and region of origin (domestic and foreign split into euro area and non-euro area). Monthly volatility can be very high so moving averages give a much better guide to underlying trends.
Description
Manufacturers orders data are keenly awaited by analysts each month. The data present a detailed breakdown by various sectors and a reading of the pulse of a major sector of the economy. Like the PPI, manufacturing orders data exclude construction, which is the preferred Eurostat measure.
The manufacturers orders data rank among the most important early indicators for monitoring and analyzing German economic wellbeing. Because these data are available for both foreign and domestic orders they are a good indication of the relative strength of the domestic and export economies. The results are compiled each month in the form of value indexes to measure the nominal development of demand and in the form of volume indexes to illustrate the price-adjusted development of demand. Unlike in the U.S., orders data are not collected for all manufacturing classifications - but only those parts in which the make-to-order production plays a prominent role. Not included are, for example, mining, quarrying and the food industry.