| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
| Composite Index | 53.8 | 53.8 to 53.8 | 53.8 | 51.8 |
| Services Index | 52.9 | 52.9 to 52.9 | 52.9 | 49.7 |
Highlights
Germany’s private sector gained momentum in September, although rising costs and capacity pressures complicate the recovery. The composite PMI increased from 51.8 to 53.8, indicating faster expansion, with manufacturing leading gains in output, new business and exports. Services also returned to growth, as its activity index rose from 49.7 to 52.9, supported by stronger client demand and signs of increased investment spending.
The recovery appears increasingly demand-driven, but firms’ ability to accommodate it remains constrained. Services backlogs accumulated at their fastest pace since June 2022, while employment increased only marginally. This imbalance suggests that recruitment is struggling to keep pace with workloads, potentially limiting further output growth.
Meanwhile, higher energy and fuel costs intensified inflationary pressures, prompting firms to raise selling prices more sharply. These increases could weaken purchasing power and constrain demand if sustained. Although businesses remained optimistic, softer services expectations suggest continued caution.
Overall, September’s results signal a strengthening recovery, but its durability will depend on whether capacity expansion and recruitment can support demand without reinforcing inflation. These updates take the RPI to 19 and the RPI-P to 10, meaning that economic activities continue to outpace market expectations in Germany.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Forecasters see no revision in the final from the flash with the composite unchanged at 53.8. That is down from 51.8 in the August final.
Definition
The Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) provides an estimate of private sector output for the preceding month by combining information obtained from surveys of around 1,000 manufacturing and service sector companies. Results are synthesised into a single index which can range between zero and 100. A reading above (below) 50 signals rising (falling) output versus the previous month and the closer to 100 (zero) the faster is output growing (contracting). The report also contains the final estimate of the services PMI. The data are provided by S&P Global.
Description
The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) survey has developed an outstanding reputation for providing the most up-to-date possible indication of what is really happening in the private sector economy by tracking variables such as sales, employment, inventories and prices. The indices are widely used by businesses, governments and economic analysts in financial institutions to help better understand business conditions and guide corporate and investment strategy. In particular, central banks in many countries (including the European Central Bank) use the data to help make interest rate decisions. PMI surveys are the first indicators of economic conditions published each month and are therefore available well ahead of comparable data produced by government bodies.