| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
| Composite Index | 51.0 | 51.0 to 51.0 | 51.8 | 51.3 |
| Services Index | 48.5 | 48.5 to 48.5 | 49.7 | 49.8 |
Highlights
Germany’s private sector gained momentum in August, although the recovery remained uneven. The composite PMI rose from 51.3 in July to a five-month high of 51.8, signalling a modest expansion led primarily by manufacturing. Broad-based growth in new orders and export sales, alongside improved business confidence, suggests that external demand is beginning to support economic activity.
The services sector, however, remained marginally subdued, with its business activity index declining from 49.8 to 49.7, slightly below the 50.0 threshold separating expansion from contraction. High costs, restrictive financial conditions and customer caution continued to constrain activity. Nevertheless, demand indicators were more encouraging as new business increased for a second consecutive month, while export orders recorded their strongest expansion since May 2023.
Importantly, employment rose for the first time in eight months as service providers recruited additional workers and manufacturing job losses moderated. This may signal growing confidence in the sustainability of demand. However, accelerating fuel, wage and electronic-component costs present a continuing risk to profitability. The slight easing in output-price inflation suggests that firms may be absorbing part of these pressures rather than transferring them fully to consumers.
In summary, Germany’s recovery is strengthening gradually, but remains dependent on manufacturing growth and improvements in external demand. These latest updates leave the RPI at 18 and the RPI-P at 29, meaning that economic activities continue to outpace market expectations in Germany.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The consensus sees no revision in the final from the flash at 51.0 for composite and 48.5 for services.
Definition
The Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) provides an estimate of private sector output for the preceding month by combining information obtained from surveys of around 1,000 manufacturing and service sector companies. Results are synthesised into a single index which can range between zero and 100. A reading above (below) 50 signals rising (falling) output versus the previous month and the closer to 100 (zero) the faster is output growing (contracting). The report also contains the final estimate of the services PMI. The data are provided by S&P Global.
Description
The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) survey has developed an outstanding reputation for providing the most up-to-date possible indication of what is really happening in the private sector economy by tracking variables such as sales, employment, inventories and prices. The indices are widely used by businesses, governments and economic analysts in financial institutions to help better understand business conditions and guide corporate and investment strategy. In particular, central banks in many countries (including the European Central Bank) use the data to help make interest rate decisions. PMI surveys are the first indicators of economic conditions published each month and are therefore available well ahead of comparable data produced by government bodies.