| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
| Composite Index | 48.0 | 48.0 to 48.8 | 49.5 | 48.8 |
| Services Index | 46.8 | 46.8 to 48.1 | 48.6 | 48.1 |
Highlights
Germany's private sector remained under pressure in June 2026, although the pace of contraction eased modestly. The composite PMI rose from 48.8 to 49.5, remaining below the 50-point expansion threshold for a third consecutive month. The improvement was driven by a recovery in manufacturing output, while the services sector continued to weigh heavily on overall economic performance amid weak domestic demand and declining international orders.
The services sector remains the principal source of economic weakness. Business activity contracted for a third consecutive month as firms reported subdued customer demand, tighter financial conditions and low business confidence. Falling new orders and accelerating reductions in backlogs indicate that demand-side challenges remain unresolved, despite a moderation in the pace of job losses.
A notable positive development was the substantial easing of inflationary pressures. Input cost inflation slowed to a seven-month low, supported by lower fuel prices, allowing firms to moderate increases in output prices. This disinflationary trend may provide some relief to businesses and strengthen expectations of a less restrictive monetary policy environment.
Taken together, the latest data suggest that Germany's economy is stabilising rather than recovering. While easing cost pressures and stronger manufacturing activity offer encouraging signs, sustained economic expansion will require a meaningful recovery in services demand, improved business confidence and greater geopolitical stability. These updates take the RPI to 3 and the RPI-P to 20, meaning that economic activities based on the RPI, are within market expectations in Germany.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The consensus looks for no revision in the final from the flash at 48.0 for composite and 46.8 for services, suggesting ongoing contraction.
Definition
The Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) provides an estimate of private sector output for the preceding month by combining information obtained from surveys of around 1,000 manufacturing and service sector companies. Results are synthesised into a single index which can range between zero and 100. A reading above (below) 50 signals rising (falling) output versus the previous month and the closer to 100 (zero) the faster is output growing (contracting). The report also contains the final estimate of the services PMI. The data are provided by S&P Global.
Description
The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) survey has developed an outstanding reputation for providing the most up-to-date possible indication of what is really happening in the private sector economy by tracking variables such as sales, employment, inventories and prices. The indices are widely used by businesses, governments and economic analysts in financial institutions to help better understand business conditions and guide corporate and investment strategy. In particular, central banks in many countries (including the European Central Bank) use the data to help make interest rate decisions. PMI surveys are the first indicators of economic conditions published each month and are therefore available well ahead of comparable data produced by government bodies.