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DE: GfK Consumer Climate
| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
| Index | -25.5 | -27.6 to -24.0 | -24.1 | -26.9 |
Highlights
Germany's consumer climate is showing a cautious rebound at the start of 2026. Economic and income expectations, along with willingness to buy, are rising, lifting the February consumer climate indicator by 2.8 points to -24.1, though it remains clearly in negative territory. Higher income expectations, driven by the January minimum wage increase and easing inflation (1.8 percent in December 2025), are the main stabilising force, while the high propensity to save is no longer adding additional drag but still signals lingering caution.
Willingness to buy has reached its best level since March 2022, suggesting that pent up demand could support a modest recovery in private consumption if sentiment holds. However, the overall picture remains fragile since three years of stagnation and ongoing geopolitical and trade risks could quickly reverse the improvement. With economic experts projecting growth of around one percent for 2026, the current upswing in sentiment should be viewed less as a turning point and more as a tentative window of opportunity for policymakers and businesses to reinforce confidence through credible, growth supportive measures.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Confidence expected to rise a bit to minus 25.5 from minus 26.9 in January.
Definition
GfK's consumer climate survey asks around 2,000 German consumers every month about their assessment of economic conditions. The questions focus on economic and income expectations and consumers' willingness to buy. Having calculated the differences between the positive and negative responses for each question the results are synthesized into a single number that reflects overall consumer expectations for the coming month.
Description
Any insight into household expenditure is vital to understanding how the economy as a whole is shaping up. The monthly correlation between the GfK consumer gauge and actual spending is not especially high but trends in the index can offer useful information about potential underlying developments in consumer behavior. As a forward looking indicator, the GfK index is one input used by analysts in the construction of their forecasts of future German retail sales.