| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
| Current Conditions | -53.1 | -54.1 to -52.0 | -47.1 | -61.1 |
| Economic Sentiment | 40.0 | 25.0 to 42.3 | 34.7 | 34.2 |
Highlights
Germany's economic sentiment improved further in September, though the pace of gains moderated compared with August. The ZEW indicator of economic expectations rose to 34.7, up 0.5 points from August, but came in below the Econoday survey median of 40.0. The current-situation indicator improved to minus 47.1, a gain of 14.0 points from August, and came in better than the Econoday survey median of minus 53.1.
The current-situation reading pointed to a notable narrowing of pessimism, even though it remained deeply negative and undershot analysts' expectations by a wide margin. Economic expectations, meanwhile, held at an elevated level after recent gains, with the modest 0.5-point rise suggesting sentiment is stabilizing after a stronger run higher.
Inflation expectations rose sharply, up 28.6 points to a reading of 30.4 as a much larger share of respondents now anticipate rising prices — a shift that may temper the outlook for monetary policy easing even as broader sentiment continues to firm.
September presented an overall stable, albeit heterogeneous, picture across German industries. The insurance industry clearly benefited from higher interest rates, with its reading rising 12.1 points to 46.4. The banking industry also improved notably, climbing 8.2 points from August to reach 52.9. In contrast, steel and metal manufacturing and the automotive industry remained in negative territory, at minus 16.7 and minus 22.6 respectively.
By comparison, sentiment on the wider eurozone was more mixed than on Germany alone. Eurozone expectations fell 5.6 points to 25.8, a decline rather than an improvement, while the current-situation assessment firmed, rising 7.6 points to minus 13.9.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The consensus looks for an improvement in current conditions to minus 53.1 in September from minus 61.1 in August. Economic sentiment is also expected up to 40.0 in September from 34.2 in August.
Definition
The Mannheim-based Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) asks German financial experts every month for their opinions on current economic conditions and the economic outlook for Germany (as well as other major industrial economies). The responses are synthesised into two simple indices that provide a snapshot of how the economy is seen to be performing.
Description
The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment is calculated from the results of the ZEW Financial Market Survey. The ZEW is followed closely as a precursor and predictor of the Ifo Sentiment Survey and as such is followed closely by market participants. The data are available around mid-month for the current month. The survey provides a measure of analysts' view of current economic conditions as well as a gauge of expectations about the coming six months. The latter measure tends to have the larger market impact and reflects the difference between the share of analysts that are optimistic and the share of analysts that are pessimistic. About 350 financial experts take part in the survey.