| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
| Current Conditions | -76.0 | -80.0 to -74.1 | -72.7 | -81.0 |
| Economic Sentiment | 50.0 | 35.0 to 55.0 | 59.6 | 45.8 |
Highlights
Germany begins 2026 with markedly improved economic sentiment. The indicator of economic expectations rose sharply to 59.6 points, up 13.8 points from December, reflecting increasing confidence in near-term recovery and 9.6 points above the consensus forecast. The current situation index, though still negative at minus 72.7, improved by 8.3 points, and 3.3 points above the consensus forecast, suggesting gradual stabilisation.
Sectoral data reinforce this shift. Export-oriented industries show measurable gains despite new US tariffs, such as steel and metal (18.2), mechanical engineering (22.7), and automotive (16.5 to minus 5.5). Chemical, pharmaceutical, and electrical engineering sectors also reported notable improvements, supported by stronger-than-expected industrial production in late 2025 and momentum from the Mercosur trade agreement.
These results may signal a turning point, though structural measures remain crucial to sustain growth and maintain Germany's competitiveness. At the eurozone level, expectations also advanced to 40.8 points (7.1), with current assessments up 10.4 to minus 18.1 points, indicating broad regional optimism despite ongoing trade policy uncertainty. These latest updates take the RPI to 6 and the RPI-P to 13, meaning that economic activities continue to perform within the expectations of the German economy.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Current conditions seen better at minus 76.0 for January versus minus 81.0 in December. Sentiment expected at 50 versus 45.8 in December.
Definition
The Mannheim-based Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), asks German financial experts every month for their opinions on current economic conditions and the economic outlook for Germany (as well as other major industrial economies). The responses are synthesised into two simple indices that provide a snapshot of how the economy is seen to be performing.
Description
The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment is calculated from the results of the ZEW Financial Market Survey. The ZEW is followed closely as a precursor and predictor of the Ifo Sentiment Survey and as such is followed closely by market participants. The data are available around mid-month for the current month. The survey provides a measure of analysts' view of current economic conditions as well as a gauge of expectations about the coming six months. The latter measure tends to have the larger market impact and reflects the difference between the share of analysts that are optimistic and the share of analysts that are pessimistic. About 350 financial experts take part in the survey.