| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
| Month over Month | -0.2% | -0.5% to 0.5% | -0.9% | 0.1% | 1.2% |
| Year over Year | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.5% |
Highlights
Germany's retail sector entered 2026 with a clear loss of short-term momentum as real retail sales fell by 0.9 percent month-over-month in January, reversing December's revised 1.2 percent expansion. The upward revision to December suggests that late-2025 demand was stronger than initially reported, which makes January's contraction appear more like a correction than a structural downturn.
Year-over-year, the picture remains moderately positive. Real sales were 1.2 percent higher than in January 2025, indicating that underlying consumption is still expanding, albeit at a modest pace. The flat nominal reading month-over-month signals that price effects, rather than volumes, may be cushioning headline performance.
Sectoral dynamics are uneven. Food retail held steady in volume terms and recorded solid annual growth, suggesting that essential consumption remains resilient. In contrast, non-food sales declined sharply month-over-month, pointing to discretionary spending pressure. Online and mail-order retail provided the main upside surprise, with robust monthly gains, indicating continued digital substitution and channel reallocation.
Indeed, Germany's consumer environment appears cautious as annual growth persists, but monthly volatility and weakness in non-food segments reflect fragile confidence at the start of 2026. These updates bring the RPI to minus 25 and the RPI-P to minus 19, meaning that economic activities continue to lag expectations in Germany.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Sales are sluggish, expected to retreat 0.2 percent in January after rising by 0.1 percent in December on month.
Definition
Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods. The data are compiled from about 27,000 retail businesses and are reported in both nominal and volume terms. Autos are excluded. A very limited breakdown of subsector performance is available in the initial report which is itself subject to sometimes sizeable revision but much greater detail is provided in the following month's release.
Description
With consumer spending a large part of the economy, market players continually monitor spending patterns. Retail sales are a measure of consumer well-being. The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth.
Retail sales not only give you a sense of the big picture, but also the trends among different types of retailers. Perhaps auto sales are especially strong or apparel sales are showing exceptional weakness. These trends from the retail sales data can help you spot specific investment opportunities, without having to wait for a company's quarterly or annual report. However, by excluding the services sector, changes in retail sales data can differ significantly from those in total household spending.