| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
| Month over Month | 0.1% | 0.1% to 0.5% | 0.1% | -0.6% | -0.5% |
| Year over Year | 1.5% | 0.8% to 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.3% |
Highlights
Germany's retail performance showed that after a weak November, when real sales fell by a revised 0.5 percent month-over-month, December delivered a modest rebound of 0.1 percent, suggesting that consumer demand stabilised rather than accelerated at year-end. On an annual basis, December's 1.5 percent real sales growth confirms that retail activity remained on a positive trajectory, although well below earlier post-pandemic peaks.
At the annual level, 2025 marked a solid recovery year, with real retail turnover rising by 2.7 percent, exceeding earlier estimates. However, momentum was uneven. Growth was front-loaded, driven partly by a one-off restructuring effect in online retail, while the second half of the year saw a notable slowdown. This pattern signals that underlying demand was softer than headline figures initially suggest.
Sectoral trends reveal a divergent consumer landscape. Food retail showed steady, broad-based growth, benefiting from persistent spending on essentials. Non-food retail posted moderate gains year-over-year but weakened on a monthly basis, reflecting pressure on discretionary spending. Online retail, despite strong annual growth, contracted sharply in December, indicating post-boom normalisation.
In summary, the latest data portray a retail sector adjusting to tighter real incomes and fading special effects, with growth continuing but at a more cautious pace. These updates take the RPI to 24 and the RPI-P to 15, meaning that economic activities continue to outperform market expectations in Germany.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The consensus sees sales up a marginal 0.1 percent in December after falling 0.6 percent in November on the month, suggesting no sales momentum at yearend. On year, sales are seen up 1.5 percent after rising 1.1 percent in November.
Definition
Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods. The data are compiled from about 27,000 retail businesses and are reported in both nominal and volume terms. Autos are excluded. A very limited breakdown of subsector performance is available in the initial report which is itself subject to sometimes sizeable revision but much greater detail is provided in the following month's release.
Description
With consumer spending a large part of the economy, market players continually monitor spending patterns. Retail sales are a measure of consumer well-being. The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth.
Retail sales not only give you a sense of the big picture, but also the trends among different types of retailers. Perhaps auto sales are especially strong or apparel sales are showing exceptional weakness. These trends from the retail sales data can help you spot specific investment opportunities, without having to wait for a company's quarterly or annual report. However, by excluding the services sector, changes in retail sales data can differ significantly from those in total household spending.