| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
| Balance | €18.1B | €15.6B to €20.0B | €15.6B | €19.5B | €17.8B |
| Imports - M/M | 4.2% | 0.9% | 0.6% | ||
| Imports - Y/Y | 8.7% | 6.0% | 6.4% | ||
| Exports - M/M | 2.0% | -0.8% | -0.4% | ||
| Exports - Y/Y | 7.6% | 7.0% |
Highlights
Germany’s external trade performance strengthened in September 2026, although faster import growth narrowed the country’s trade surplus. Seasonally adjusted exports increased by 2.0 percent month-over-month to €141.1 billion, while imports rose more sharply by 4.2 percent to €125.5 billion. Consequently, the trade surplus declined to €15.6 billion from a revised €17.9 billion in August, suggesting that recovering domestic demand and import requirements are outpacing export expansion.
The European Union remained Germany’s principal export market, with shipments rising by 3.5 percent, providing an important buffer against weaker demand from major non-EU trading partners. Exports to the United States declined by 0.5 percent, while shipments to China and the United Kingdom contracted by 5.2 percent and 4.7 percent, respectively, reflecting uneven external demand. Nevertheless, annual export growth of 7.7 percent indicates improving trade momentum, although imports expanded faster at 8.7 percent.
Looking ahead, Germany’s trade outlook will depend on sustained European demand, improved industrial competitiveness and resilience against global trade uncertainties. Persistent import growth relative to exports could further compress the trade surplus, moderating net trade’s contribution to economic growth. These latest updates take the RPI to minus 25 and the RPI-P to minus 12. This means that economic activities are now lagging behind market expectations in Germany.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The surplus is expected to narrow to E18.1 billion in September from E19.5 billion in August as the German export engine slows.
Definition
The merchandise trade balance measures the difference between imports and exports of goods. The level of the international trade balance, as well as changes in exports and imports, indicate trends in foreign trade and can offer a guide to an economy's competitiveness.
Description
Changes in the level of imports and exports, along with the difference between the two (the trade balance) are a valuable gauge of economic trends here and abroad. While these trade figures can directly impact all financial markets, they primarily affect currency values in foreign exchange markets.
Imports indicate demand for foreign goods and services in Germany. Exports show the demand for German goods in countries overseas. Given the size of the German economy, the euro can be sensitive to changes in the trade balance. The bond market is also sensitive to the risk of importing inflation. This report gives a breakdown of trade with major countries as well, so it can be instructive for investors who are interested in diversifying globally. For example, a trend of accelerating exports to a particular country might signal economic strength and investment opportunities in that country.