| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
| Balance | €16.0B | €16.0B to €16.0B | €19.1B | €14.5B | €14.7B |
| Imports - M/M | -2.5% | 1.2% | 1.1% | ||
| Imports - Y/Y | 1.6% | 6.3% | 6.1% | ||
| Exports - M/M | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.8% | ||
| Exports - Y/Y | -0.8% | 3.6% | 3.7% |
Highlights
Germany’s foreign trade performance in May 2026 reflects strengthening external competitiveness, with seasonally adjusted exports rising by 0.9 percent while imports fell by 2.5 percent, widening the trade surplus to €19.1 billion from a revised €14.7 billion in April. The expansion was primarily driven by robust demand from non-EU markets, where exports increased by 3.6 percent, contrasting with a 1.1 percent decline in exports to EU member states. Notably, exports to the United States surged by 23.1 percent month-over-month, reinforcing its position as Germany’s largest export destination, while exports to China and the United Kingdom also recorded moderate gains.
Although the seasonally adjusted data indicate resilient trade momentum, the unadjusted figures present a more cautious picture, with exports declining by 0.8 percent year-over-year and imports increasing by 1.6 percent, resulting in a narrower nominal trade surplus of €15.6 billion. This divergence highlights the importance of seasonal adjustment in interpreting underlying trade dynamics.
In summary, Germany’s trade sector continues to benefit from strong demand in major global markets, particularly outside the European Union, while weaker intra-EU trade suggests persistent softness in regional economic activity. The increasing reliance on external demand emphasizes the export sector’s critical role in sustaining Germany’s economic growth amid ongoing domestic and regional challenges. These updates take the RPI to 19 and the RPI-P to 39, meaning that economic activities continue to outpace market expectations in Germany.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The surplus is expected to expand to E16.0 billion in May from E14.5 billion in April.
Definition
The merchandise trade balance measures the difference between imports and exports of goods. The level of the international trade balance, as well as changes in exports and imports, indicate trends in foreign trade and can offer a guide to an economy's competitiveness.
Description
Changes in the level of imports and exports, along with the difference between the two (the trade balance) are a valuable gauge of economic trends here and abroad. While these trade figures can directly impact all financial markets, they primarily affect currency values in foreign exchange markets.
Imports indicate demand for foreign goods and services in Germany. Exports show the demand for German goods in countries overseas. Given the size of the German economy, the euro can be sensitive to changes in the trade balance. The bond market is also sensitive to the risk of importing inflation. This report gives a breakdown of trade with major countries as well, so it can be instructive for investors who are interested in diversifying globally. For example, a trend of accelerating exports to a particular country might signal economic strength and investment opportunities in that country.