| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
| Balance | €14.0B | €13.0B to €14.0B | €17.1B | €13.0B | €13.6B |
| Imports - M/M | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.7% | ||
| Imports - Y/Y | 8.4% | 4.4% | 3.9% | ||
| Exports - M/M | 4.0% | -2.5% | |||
| Exports - Y/Y | 6.0% | -1.7% | -1.6% |
Highlights
Germany closed 2025 with a late surge in trade momentum, as exports rebounded sharply in December while imports rose more modestly. A 4.0 percent month-over-month jump in exports lifted shipments to €133.3 billion, widening the trade surplus to €17.1 billion and signalling firmer external demand at year-end. Imports increased by 1.4 percent, reflecting resilient domestic demand but also keeping the surplus well below its level a year earlier.
The composition of trade points to a shifting geography rather than a uniform upswing. Exports to non-EU markets grew faster than those to EU partners, with particularly strong monthly gains to China, the UK and the United States. However, the annual picture is less reassuring as exports to the US were markedly lower than a year earlier, underscoring how volatile transatlantic demand has become.
On the import side, China remained Germany's dominant supplier, reinforcing its position as Germany's largest overall trading partner in 2025. This suggests that Germany's trade strength is increasingly driven by selective external demand rather than broad-based export dynamism. These updates take the RPI to 22 and the RPI-P to 13, meaning that economic activities continue to outperform expectations in Germany.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Slightly wider surplus expected at E14.0 billion versus E13.0 in November.
Definition
The merchandise trade balance measures the difference between imports and exports of goods. The level of the international trade balance, as well as changes in exports and imports, indicate trends in foreign trade and can offer a guide to an economy's competitiveness.
Description
Changes in the level of imports and exports, along with the difference between the two (the trade balance) are a valuable gauge of economic trends here and abroad. While these trade figures can directly impact all financial markets, they primarily affect currency values in foreign exchange markets.
Imports indicate demand for foreign goods and services in Germany. Exports show the demand for German goods in countries overseas. Given the size of the German economy, the euro can be sensitive to changes in the trade balance. The bond market is also sensitive to the risk of importing inflation. This report gives a breakdown of trade with major countries as well, so it can be instructive for investors who are interested in diversifying globally. For example, a trend of accelerating exports to a particular country might signal economic strength and investment opportunities in that country.