| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
| Initial Claims - Level | 215K | 210K to 220K | 213K | 212K | 213K |
| Initial Claims - Change | 0K | 4K | 5K | ||
| 4-Week Moving Average | 215.75K | 220.25K | 220.50K |
Highlights
Initial jobless claims were flat at 213,000 in the week ended February 28, roughly in line with expectations ranging from 210,000 to 220,000 in an Econoday survey of forecasters. Claims in the previous week were up 5,000, little changed from the initial estimate of a 4,000 increase.
The four-week moving average was down 4,750 to 215,750 in the last week of February, as claims dropped 21,000 in the February 14 week, while changes were muted during the three other weeks, netting a 2,000 increase.
On an unadjusted basis, claims rose 18,820 (or 9.7 percent) to 213,090, similar to the 18,938 increase (also 9.7 percent) expected by seasonal factors.
In lagging data for the February 21 week, insured jobless claims renbounded 46,000 to 1.868 million, after declining 42,000 the previous week. The four-week average still rose to 1.852 million from 1.845 million. The insured rate of unemployment remained at 1.2 percent, where it has been since late November 2025.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Claims seen at 215K, up from 212K last week.
Definition
New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smooths out weekly volatility.
Description
Jobless claims are an easy way to gauge the strength of the job market. The fewer people filing for unemployment benefits, the more have jobs, and that tells investors a great deal about the economy. Nearly every job comes with an income that gives a household spending power. Spending greases the wheels of the economy and keeps it growing, so a stronger job market generates a healthier economy.
There's a downside to it, though. Unemployment claims, and therefore the number of job seekers, can fall to such a low level that businesses have a tough time finding new workers. They might have to pay overtime wages to current staff, use higher wages to lure people from other jobs, and in general spend more on labor costs because of a shortage of workers. This leads to wage inflation, which is bad news for the stock and bond markets. Federal Reserve officials are always on the look-out for inflationary pressures.
By tracking the number of jobless claims, investors can gain a sense of how tight, or how loose, the job market is. If wage inflation looks threatening, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise, bond and stock prices will fall, and the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who tracked jobless claims and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.
Just remember, the lower the number of unemployment claims, the stronger the job market, and vice versa.
