| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
| Initial Claims - Level | 215K | 212K to 221K | 212K | 206K | 208K |
| Initial Claims - Change | 4K | -23K | -21K | ||
| 4-Week Moving Average | 220.25K | 219.00K | 219.50K |
Highlights
Initial jobless claims increased 4,000 to 212,000 in the week ended February 21, coming in at the low end of the consensus range of 212,000 to 221,000 in an Econoday survey of forecasters. The previous week was revised up to 208,000 from 206,000.
The four-week moving average edged up 750 to 220,250 in the February 21 week. A 23,000 increase in the last week of January was offset by a 21,000 drop in the February 14 week, with the two other weeks also offsetting each other at minus 3,000 and up 4,000.
Unadjusted claims decreased 16,723 (or minus 8.0 percent) in the February 21 week, while seasonal factors had expected a slightly larger decrease of 19,776 (or minus 9.4 percent).
Insured jobless claims dropped 31,000 to 1.833 million in the week ended February 14, after a cumulative increase of 45,000 over the three previous weeks. The four-week average rose to 1.848 million from 1.844 million. The insured rate of unemployment remained at 1.2 percent, where it has been since late November 2025.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Claims back up at 215K in the latest week from an unexpectedly low 206K in the previous week.
Definition
New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smooths out weekly volatility.
Description
Jobless claims are an easy way to gauge the strength of the job market. The fewer people filing for unemployment benefits, the more have jobs, and that tells investors a great deal about the economy. Nearly every job comes with an income that gives a household spending power. Spending greases the wheels of the economy and keeps it growing, so a stronger job market generates a healthier economy.
There's a downside to it, though. Unemployment claims, and therefore the number of job seekers, can fall to such a low level that businesses have a tough time finding new workers. They might have to pay overtime wages to current staff, use higher wages to lure people from other jobs, and in general spend more on labor costs because of a shortage of workers. This leads to wage inflation, which is bad news for the stock and bond markets. Federal Reserve officials are always on the look-out for inflationary pressures.
By tracking the number of jobless claims, investors can gain a sense of how tight, or how loose, the job market is. If wage inflation looks threatening, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise, bond and stock prices will fall, and the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who tracked jobless claims and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.
Just remember, the lower the number of unemployment claims, the stronger the job market, and vice versa.
