| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
| Initial Claims - Level | 225K | 204K to 229K | 206K | 227K | 229K |
| Initial Claims - Change | -23K | -5K | -3K | ||
| 4-Week Moving Average | 219.00K | 219.50K | 220.00K |
Highlights
Initial jobless are down 23,000 to 206,000 in the week ending February 14 after a small upward revision to 229,000 in the prior week. The level is lower than expected by the consensus of 225,000 in the Econoday survey of forecasters. The data reflect a larger decrease in new claims than anticipated by the seasonal adjustment factors which exaggerated the size of the decrease.
The four-week moving average is little changed at down 1,000 to 219,000 in the February 14 week. The underlying trend for new claims remains in the low 200,000's and consistent with low levels of layoff activity in a modestly expanding economy.
Insured jobless claims are up 17,000 to 1.869 million in the week ending February 7. The change does not suggest any significant difference from the prior week. The four-week moving average is up a scant 1,000 to 1.845 million in the week and points to steady levels of unemployment benefit recipients. The number of people moving on to the unemployment rolls is about balance by those moving off. It is not possible to determine if those no longer receiving benefits have found other employment or have timed out of jobless claims programs.
The insured rate of unemployment remains at 1.2 percent in the February 7 week where it has been since late November 2025.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Claims expected nearly flat at 225K versus 227K in the previous week.
Definition
New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smooths out weekly volatility.
Description
Jobless claims are an easy way to gauge the strength of the job market. The fewer people filing for unemployment benefits, the more have jobs, and that tells investors a great deal about the economy. Nearly every job comes with an income that gives a household spending power. Spending greases the wheels of the economy and keeps it growing, so a stronger job market generates a healthier economy.
There's a downside to it, though. Unemployment claims, and therefore the number of job seekers, can fall to such a low level that businesses have a tough time finding new workers. They might have to pay overtime wages to current staff, use higher wages to lure people from other jobs, and in general spend more on labor costs because of a shortage of workers. This leads to wage inflation, which is bad news for the stock and bond markets. Federal Reserve officials are always on the look-out for inflationary pressures.
By tracking the number of jobless claims, investors can gain a sense of how tight, or how loose, the job market is. If wage inflation looks threatening, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise, bond and stock prices will fall, and the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who tracked jobless claims and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.
Just remember, the lower the number of unemployment claims, the stronger the job market, and vice versa.
