| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
| Initial Claims - Level | 215K | 210K to 243K | 227K | 231K | 232K |
| Initial Claims - Change | -5K | 22K | 23K | ||
| 4-Week Moving Average | 219.50K | 212.25K | 212.50K |
Highlights
Initial claims were down 5,000 to 227,000 in the week ended February 7, slightly higher than the 215,000 consensus expectation in an Econoday survey of forecasters. The four-week moving average increased 7,000 to 219,500, the highest level since the November 22, 2025 week, owing to a 23,000 increase in the last week of January.
Unadjusted claims were down 4,555 to 248,397, while seasonal factors had expected an increase of 1,161 (or 0.5 percent)
In lagging data for the January 31 week, insured unemployment increased another 21,000 to 1.862 million after rising 22,000 the previous week. Still, the four-week average was down 3,250 to 1.847 million, the lowest level since October 5, 2024 due to declines totalling 56,000 in the two weeks ended January 17. The insured rate of unemployment remained steady at 1.2 percent.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
After surging unexpectedly by 22K to 231K a week ago, the consensus looks for claims back down at 215K this week.
Definition
New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smooths out weekly volatility.
Description
Jobless claims are an easy way to gauge the strength of the job market. The fewer people filing for unemployment benefits, the more have jobs, and that tells investors a great deal about the economy. Nearly every job comes with an income that gives a household spending power. Spending greases the wheels of the economy and keeps it growing, so a stronger job market generates a healthier economy.
There's a downside to it, though. Unemployment claims, and therefore the number of job seekers, can fall to such a low level that businesses have a tough time finding new workers. They might have to pay overtime wages to current staff, use higher wages to lure people from other jobs, and in general spend more on labor costs because of a shortage of workers. This leads to wage inflation, which is bad news for the stock and bond markets. Federal Reserve officials are always on the look-out for inflationary pressures.
By tracking the number of jobless claims, investors can gain a sense of how tight, or how loose, the job market is. If wage inflation looks threatening, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise, bond and stock prices will fall, and the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who tracked jobless claims and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.
Just remember, the lower the number of unemployment claims, the stronger the job market, and vice versa.
