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AU: International Trade in Goods
| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
| Balance | A$4.25B | A$2.0B to A$7.5B | A$-1.841B | A$5.686B | A$5.026B |
| Imports - M/M | 14.1% | -3.2% | |||
| Exports - M/M | -2.7% | 4.9% |
Highlights
Australia's goods trade balance shifted from a surplus of A$5.026 billion in February to a deficit of 1.841 billion in March, well off the consensus forecast of a surplus of A$4.25 billion. This is the first monthly trade deficit since 2017 and largely reflects the impact of the Iran conflict on the value of fuel imports. In seasonally adjusted terms, the value of exports fell 2.7 percent on the month after advancing 4.9 percent previously, while imports surged 14.1 percent higher on the month after a previous fall of 3.2 percent. This includes increases of 42.2 percent in the value of diesel imports and 20.6 percent in the value of gasoline imports.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The surplus expected down to A$4.25 billion in March from A$5.586 billion in February.
Definition
The Goods Trade Balance measures the difference between imports and exports of tangible goods. The level of the international trade balance, as well as changes in exports and imports, indicate trends in foreign trade.
Description
Changes in the level of imports and exports, along with the difference between the two (the trade balance) are a valuable gauge of economic trends here and abroad. While these trade figures can directly impact all financial markets, they primarily affect the value of the Australian dollar in the foreign exchange market. Imports indicate demand for foreign goods while exports show the demand for Australian goods in its major export market China and elsewhere. The currency can be sensitive to changes in the trade balance since a trade imbalance creates greater demand for foreign currencies. The bond market is also sensitive to the risk of importing inflation. A word of caution -- the data are subject to large monthly revisions. Therefore, it can be misleading to form opinions on the basis of one month's data.