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US: PMI Manufacturing Final
| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
| Index | 53.8 | 53.8 to 54.0 | 53.9 | 53.9 |
Highlights
The S&P Global US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index came in at 53.9 in July, the same as in June, and just above expectations for 53.8 in the Econoday survey of forecasters. Output growth slowed sharply, while the pace of new orders eases due to subdued sentiment and rising prices. Exports also declined.
There is evidence of significant supply chain disruption, contributing to slower growth in both inventories and purchases of pre-production goods.
There are also indications of marked, “albeit softer,” hikes in input costs and selling prices – primarily due to higher energy prices and tariffs.
These factors caused confidence in the outlook to weaken for the third consecutive month, dropping to its lowest level since October 2025.
On the jobs front, “[s]taffing rose only marginally at the start of the third quarter, with anecdotal evidence suggesting that vacancies had been broadly filled. However, backlogs of work also rose modestly, signaling some pressure on capacity.”
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The consensus looks for no revision in the final July report from the flash at 53.8, almost flat from 53.9 in the June final.
Definition
Based on monthly questionnaire surveys of selected companies, the Purchasing Managers' Manufacturing Index (PMI) offers an advance indication on month-to-month activity in the private sector economy by tracking changes in variables such as production, new orders, stock levels, employment and prices across manufacturing industries. The final index for the current month is released roughly a week after the flash.
Description
Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the ISM manufacturing index in the U.S. and the Markit PMIs in the U.S. and elsewhere, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly and causing potential inflationary pressures.
The Markit PMI manufacturing data give a detailed look at the manufacturing sector, how busy it is and where things are headed. Since the manufacturing sector is a major source of cyclical variability in the economy, this report has a big influence on the markets. And its sub-indexes provide a picture of orders, output, employment and prices.
Markit originally began collecting monthly Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data in the U.S. in April 2004, initially from a panel of manufacturers in the U.S. electronics goods producing sector. In May 2007, Markit's U.S. PMI research was extended out to cover producers of metal goods. In October 2009, Markit's U.S. Manufacturing PMI survey panel was extended further to cover all areas of U.S. manufacturing activity. Back data for Markit's U.S. Manufacturing PMI between May 2007 and September 2009 are an aggregation of data collected from producers of electronic goods and metal goods producers, while data from October 2009 are based on data collected from a panel representing the entire U.S. manufacturing economy. Markit's total U.S. Manufacturing PMI survey panel comprises over 600 companies.
