| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
| Composite Index | 50.5 | 49.9 to 51.2 | 52.0 | 51.4 |
| Manufacturing Index | 52.5 | 52.0 to 52.8 | 54.0 | 52.4 |
| Services Index | 50.0 | 49.6 to 50.9 | 51.3 | 51.1 |
Highlights
The S&P PMIs outperform with the composite up to 52.0 in the April flash from 50.3 in the March final, topping the consensus forecast of 50.5. Manufacturing leads the way at 54.0, a 47-month high, up from 52.3 in the March final and well above the 52.5 consensus forecast. Services moves into expansion at 51.3 in the April flash from 49.8 in March.
So it looks like after a setback in March with the onset of the Iran war and the big jump in energy costs, business expanded again in April. S&P calls the pace of expansion subdued, however, and attributes the decent-looking showing in manufacturing to firms building up stocks amid worries about supply availability if the war continues.
And here is the kicker from S&P:"Input cost inflation accelerated and supply delays worsened at a pace not seen since mid-2022, contributing to the largest monthly jump in average selling prices for goods and services since July 2022."
So as the war did go on, will we see an unusual downward revision in these indicators for the second part of April and into May?
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Unlike their European counterparts, these PMIs are seen edging up in the April flash with the composite up at 50.5 from 50.3 in the March final.
Definition
The flash Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) provides an early estimate of current private sector output by combining information obtained from surveys of around 1,000 manufacturing and service sector companies. The flash data are released around 10 days ahead of the final report and are typically based upon around 85 percent of the full survey sample. The report tracks changes in variables such as new orders, stock levels, employment and prices across both manufacturing and services. Production is also tracked, defined as"production" for manufacturing and"output" for services. Results are synthesized into a single index which can range between zero and 100. A reading above (below) 50 signals rising (falling) output versus the previous month and the closer to 100 (zero) the faster output is growing (contracting). The report also contains flash estimates of the manufacturing and services PMIs. The data are produced by S&P Global.
Description
Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the purchasing managers' manufacturing indexes, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly and causing potential inflationary pressures.