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US: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
| Index | 32.6 | 10 to 47 | 37.8 | 47.4 |
Highlights
A slight beat versus expectations with the index at 37.8 in September versus the 32.6 expected and off from 47.4 in August. Still a robust reading suggesting moderately strong expansion in business activity.
New orders continue to rise at about the same clip with an index of 29.2 versus 30.1 in August. That suggests more of the same ahead for the manufacturing sector. Prices paid remains a fly in the ointment at a problematic 48.6 versus 40.9 in August. That reflects a serious problem with input commodity prices, as in the ISM report lately. Employment is also shaky with a dip to 11.8 from 27.9.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Manufacturing expansion expected to remain pretty robust with the business activity index at 32.6 in September versus a remarkable 47.4 in August.
Definition
The general conditions index from this business outlook survey is a diffusion index of manufacturing conditions within the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district. This survey, widely followed as an indicator of manufacturing sector trends, is correlated with the ISM manufacturing index and the index of industrial production.
Description
Investors need to monitor the economy closely because it usually dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the Philly Fed survey, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers more moderate growth so that it won't lead to inflation. The Philly Fed survey gives a detailed look at the manufacturing sector, how busy it is and where things are headed. Since manufacturing is a major sector of the economy, this report has a big influence on market behavior. Some of the Philly Fed sub-indexes also provide insight on commodity prices and other clues on inflation. The bond market is highly sensitive to this report because it is released early in the month and is available before other important indicators.