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US: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
| Index | 7.7 | 5.0 to 12.2 | 16.3 | 12.6 |
Highlights
Philly Fed tops expectations with the current conditions index up to 16.3 in February from 12.6 in January, which appears to validate the return to expansion at the start of the year. Expectations for February called for a more modest 7.7 index reading.
New orders come in pretty stable in moderate growth territory at 11.7 versus 14.4. Shipments, however, recede to nearly flat at 0.3 in February from 9.5 in January. Employment also looks dubious at minus 1.3 versus 9.7 in January, the first negative reading since June 2025. That suggests hiring essentially flat. Looking ahead, the 6-month outlook index is downright bubbly at 42.8 versus 25.5 in January.
Price pressures look better but remain elevated. Prices paid are at 38.9 in February versus 46.9 in January and prices received at 16.7 in February versus 27.8.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The consensus looks for an index at 7.7 in February suggesting ongoing modest expansion in manufacturing business versus 12.6 in January.
Definition
The general conditions index from this business outlook survey is a diffusion index of manufacturing conditions within the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district. This survey, widely followed as an indicator of manufacturing sector trends, is correlated with the ISM manufacturing index and the index of industrial production.
Description
Investors need to monitor the economy closely because it usually dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the Philly Fed survey, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers more moderate growth so that it won't lead to inflation. The Philly Fed survey gives a detailed look at the manufacturing sector, how busy it is and where things are headed. Since manufacturing is a major sector of the economy, this report has a big influence on market behavior. Some of the Philly Fed sub-indexes also provide insight on commodity prices and other clues on inflation. The bond market is highly sensitive to this report because it is released early in the month and is available before other important indicators.