https://www.cmegroup.com/content/dam/cmegroup/images/common/default/article-940x600.jpg
US: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
| Index | 98.0 | 95.0 to 98.4 | 97.9 | 98.7 |
Highlights
The index falls about as expected to 97.9 in September from 98.7 in August. This is one-tenth of a point below the 52-year average of 98.0.
Reports of “labor quality or availability” as owners’ single most important problem rise 3 points in September to 26 percent, making it the top reported issue for the third consecutive month.
The second top issue in September is inflation, with 20 percent of owners reporting it as their single most important problem, up 4 points from August.
Expectations for better business conditions worsen for the second consecutive month. A net 6 percent (seasonally adjusted) of owners expect better conditions in the next six months, down 4 points from August but remaining above average.
Only 7 percent (seasonally adjusted) of owners say it is a good time to expand their business, down 5 points from August.
Small business owners’ evaluation of the health of their business shifted negatively in September, with substantially more owners reporting their business “fair” (35 percent, up seven points) rather than “good” (48 percent, down nine points).
Market Consensus Before Announcement
A slightly weaker 98.0 is the call, down from 98.7 in August.
Definition
The small business optimism index is compiled from a survey that is conducted each month by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) of its members. The index is a composite of 10 seasonally adjusted components based on the following questions: plans to increase employment, plans to make capital outlays, plans to increase inventories, expect economy to improve, expect real sales higher, current inventory, current job openings, expected credit conditions, now a good time to expand, and earnings trend.
Description
Small businesses are responsible for a majority of new job creation and the NFIB focuses on this sector of the economy. The direction of the health of small businesses can portend changes in the stock market - especially small caps.
