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US: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
| Index | 95.6 | 95.0 to 96.0 | 97.4 | 95.3 |
Highlights
Small business confidence rises more than expected to 97.4 in June from 95.3 in May. The Econoday consensus looked for only 95.6.
It remains below its 52-year average of 98.0 but it's getting closer. The improvement is driven by better business conditions and real sales expectations which rise substantially.
Falling fuel prices during June help a lot as it provides relief for both business and consumers. The problem is in July fuel prices have been headed back up with the collapse of the US-Iran ceasefire.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Business sentiment expected essentially flat at 95.6 in June from 95.3 in May.
Definition
The small business optimism index is compiled from a survey that is conducted each month by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) of its members. The index is a composite of 10 seasonally adjusted components based on the following questions: plans to increase employment, plans to make capital outlays, plans to increase inventories, expect economy to improve, expect real sales higher, current inventory, current job openings, expected credit conditions, now a good time to expand, and earnings trend.
Description
Small businesses are responsible for a majority of new job creation and the NFIB focuses on this sector of the economy. The direction of the health of small businesses can portend changes in the stock market - especially small caps.
