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US: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
| Index | 96.0 | 95.7 to 97.0 | 95.3 | 95.9 |
Highlights
Small business confidence declines in May to 95.3 from 95.9 in April, and below the consensus 96.0. The separate uncertainty index is up to 91 in May from 88 in April, presumably reflecting the impact of the US-Iran war.
US NFIB SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM INDEX: 3 OF 10 COMPONENTS UP, 6 DOWN, 1 UNCHANGED IN MAY
US NFIB SMALL BUSINESS INDEX: LARGEST MOVE DOWN 5 POINTS IN CURRENT JOBS TO 29%; LOWEST SINCE 23% IN MAY 2020
US NFIB SMALL BUSINESS INDEX: LARGEST UPWARD 4 POINTS FOR EARNINGS TREND TO -15%
US NFIB SMALL BUSINESS INDEX: MAY INDEX REMAINS BELOW 52-YEAR AVERAGE OF 98 FOR THIRD STRAIGHT MONTH
US NFIB UNCERTAINTY INDEX 91 IN MAY VS 88 IN APRIL; 94 IN MAY 2025
US NFIB SMALL BUSINESS INDEX: 19% OF OWNERS REPORTED THAT TAXES WAS THEIR SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM IN MAY
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Forecasters see the index edging up very marginally to 96.0 in May from 95.9 in April as sentiment remains subdued amid worries about surging fuel prices.
Definition
The small business optimism index is compiled from a survey that is conducted each month by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) of its members. The index is a composite of 10 seasonally adjusted components based on the following questions: plans to increase employment, plans to make capital outlays, plans to increase inventories, expect economy to improve, expect real sales higher, current inventory, current job openings, expected credit conditions, now a good time to expand, and earnings trend.
Description
Small businesses are responsible for a majority of new job creation and the NFIB focuses on this sector of the economy. The direction of the health of small businesses can portend changes in the stock market - especially small caps.
