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US: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
| Index | 96.1 | 95.4 to 96.8 | 95.9 | 95.8 |
Highlights
The NFIB small business optimism index is below the 52-year average of 98 for the second month in a row. April and March are the softest readings since since April 2025 when the Trump administration's so-called Liberation Day shook business confidence with heavy new tariffs. The April index is virtually unchanged from March with increases in 7 of 10 components nearly offset by declines in 3 components.
The April index is 95.9 after 95.8 in March and just below the consensus of 96.1 in the Econoday survey of forecasters. The reading suggests that businesses are still feeling their way through changing circumstances after the start of the war on Iran on February 28 and the subsequent sharp rise in energy prices. It is notable that the NFIB uncertainty index is down to 88 in April from 92 in March. While survey respondents are less uncertain about business conditions, it is because they are surer that risks to the downside are lengthening.
Among the 7 index components that increase in April, the largest is 6 points in the earnings trend to minus 19 percent. The largest decrease is 7 points in expectations for the economy to improve to 4 percent, the lowest since minus 5 percent in October 2024.
Among survey respondents in April, 18 percent cited quality of labor as their single-most important problem, even more than the 17 percent that cited taxes and 16 percent that cited inflation.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Sentiment index expected pretty flat at 96.1 in April versus a low 95.8 in March.
Definition
The small business optimism index is compiled from a survey that is conducted each month by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) of its members. The index is a composite of 10 seasonally adjusted components based on the following questions: plans to increase employment, plans to make capital outlays, plans to increase inventories, expect economy to improve, expect real sales higher, current inventory, current job openings, expected credit conditions, now a good time to expand, and earnings trend.
Description
Small businesses are responsible for a majority of new job creation and the NFIB focuses on this sector of the economy. The direction of the health of small businesses can portend changes in the stock market - especially small caps.
