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US: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
| Index | 97.5 | 96.3 to 98.5 | 95.8 | 98.8 |
Highlights
The NFIB small business optimism index fell below the 52-year average of 98 for the first time since April 2025 when the Trump administration's so-called Liberation Day roiled business confidence with the announcement of heavy new tariffs. In March 2026, businesses are responding negatively to the lengthening war on Iran and renewed inflation pressures and supply chain disruptions. The March small business optimism index falls 3 points to 95.8 in March after 98.8 in February and is below 97.4 in March 2025. The uncertainty index is up 4 points to 92 in March, the highest since 100 in September 2025.
No index components are higher in March while two are unchanged and eight are down. The largest declines are a drop of 11 points to minus 25 percent in the earnings trend and 7 points to 11 percent for expectations for the economy to improve. The reading for expectations for the economy to improve is the lowest since minus 5 percent in November 2025 at the end of the presidential election cycle.
Among survey respondents in March, 19 percent cited taxes as their single-most important problem, the same as in February. The second largest problem remains the quality of labor available to hire at 15 percent in March and February. On the rise again are responses citing inflation at 14 percent in March after 12 percent in February.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The consensus looks for the index to fall back to 97.5 in March from 98.8 in February as rising energy prices hit sentiment.
Definition
The small business optimism index is compiled from a survey that is conducted each month by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) of its members. The index is a composite of 10 seasonally adjusted components based on the following questions: plans to increase employment, plans to make capital outlays, plans to increase inventories, expect economy to improve, expect real sales higher, current inventory, current job openings, expected credit conditions, now a good time to expand, and earnings trend.
Description
Small businesses are responsible for a majority of new job creation and the NFIB focuses on this sector of the economy. The direction of the health of small businesses can portend changes in the stock market - especially small caps.
