| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
| Annual Rate | 4.200M | 4.130M to 4.250M | 3.91M | 4.35M | 4.27M |
| Month over Month | -8.4% | 5.1% | 4.4% | ||
| Year over Year | -4.4% | 1.4% | -0.5% |
Highlights
The January data on existing home sales is probably affected by the severe cold weather and storms that blanketed much of the US during the month. Some closing of contracts was likely delayed as all parties involved in a home sale were unable to complete the process. As a result, there will probably be a pop in sales in February as transactions catch up. It may be March before underlying conditions are clearer for the home resale market.
Sales of existing homes are down 8.4 percent in January to 3.91 million units at a seasonally adjusted annual rate compared to 4.27 million units in December. January sales are down 4.4 percent compared to a year ago. The January consensus for home resales is 4.20 million units in the Econoday survey of forecasters. The impact of January weather was not well anticipated.
Many forecasters thought that the drop in mortgage rates would propel January contract closings with mortgages taken out mostly in December. The Freddie Mac average monthly rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell from 6.24 percent in November to 6.19 percent in December. Rates continued to decline to 6.11 percent in January.
Sales of single-family homes are down to 3.53 million units in January, down 9.0 percent month-over-month and down 4.3 percent year-over-year. Sales of condos and co-ops are at 380,000 units in January, down 2.6 percent from the prior month and off 5.0 percent compared to January 2025.
Supplies of home for sale are up slightly in January to 3.7 months' worth after 3.5 months in December 2025 and January 2025. The median price of a home is down 2.0% to $396,000 in January from December and up only 0.9 percent from January 2025.
The average number of days a listed home is on the market rose to 46 in January from 39 in December and is higher than 42 in January 2025. The sharp month-over-month increase is likely an artifact of the weather. The share of homes bought by first-time buyers is 31 percent in January, up from 29 percent in December and 28 percent in January 2025. The share of all-cash buyers is little changed at 27 percent in January from 28 percent in December and 29 percent in January 2025.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Forecasters see sales flagging at a 4.20 million unit rate in January, down from 4.35 million in December.
Definition
Existing home sales tally the number of previously constructed homes, condominiums and co-ops in which a sale closed during the month. Existing homes (also known as home resales) account for a larger share of the market than new homes and indicate housing market trends.
Description
This provides a gauge of not only the demand for housing, but the economic momentum. People have to be feeling pretty comfortable and confident in their own financial position to buy a house. Furthermore, this narrow piece of data has a powerful multiplier effect through the economy, and therefore across the markets and your investments. By tracking economic data such as home resales, investors can gain specific investment ideas as well as broad guidance for managing a portfolio.
Even though home resales don't always create new output, once the home is sold, it generates revenues for the realtor. It brings a myriad of consumption opportunities for the buyer.
Refrigerators, washers, dryers and furniture are just a few items home buyers might purchase. The economic"ripple effect" can be substantial especially when you think a hundred thousand new households around the country are doing this every month. Since the economic backdrop is the most pervasive influence on financial markets, home resales have a direct bearing on stocks, bonds and commodities. In a more specific sense, trends in the existing home sales data carry valuable clues for the stocks of home builders, mortgage lenders and home furnishings companies.
