https://www.cmegroup.com/content/dam/cmegroup/images/common/default/article-940x600.jpg
US: Empire State Manufacturing Index
| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
| Index | 12.5 | 9.0 to 16.0 | 5.7 | 19.6 |
Highlights
The Empire manufacturing general business conditions index misses expectations at 5.7 for June, well below the 12.5 Econoday consensus expectation and down from 19.6 in May. The latest figure suggests slowing growth but at least it is still expansion, and much better than the minus 14.9 of June 2025.
New orders, the forward-looking index, declines to 3.5 in June from 22.7 in May, but again, much better than minus 12.6 in June 2025.
Interestingly, employment is better at 9.6 in June versus 8.3 in May and 3.9 in June 2025. Price pressures remain a big problem: prices paid are at 61.0 in June versus 62.6 in May and 47.4 a year ago. Prices received come in at 31.4 in June versus 31.8 in May and 28.3 in June 2025.
Expectations remain buoyant with the future condition index at 30.1 in June versus 33.5 in May and 21.9 in June 2025.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The consensus looks for the manufacturing business index at 12.5 in June versus 19.6 in May. That would suggest somewhat slower expansion in business activity relative to May.
Definition
The New York Fed conducts this monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State. Participants from across the state represent a variety of industries. On the first of each month, the same pool of roughly 200 manufacturing executives (usually the CEO or the president) is sent a questionnaire to report the change in an assortment of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also give their views about the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead.
Description
Investors track economic data like the Empire State Manufacturing Survey to understand the economic backdrop for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers a moderate growth environment that won't generate inflationary pressures. The Empire Manufacturing Survey gives a detailed look at New York state's manufacturing sector, how busy it is and where things are headed. Since manufacturing is a major sector of the economy, this report has a big influence on the markets. Some of the Empire State Survey sub-indexes also provide insight on commodity prices and other clues on inflation. The Federal Reserve closely watches this report because when inflation signals are flashing, policymakers can reset the direction of interest rates. As a consequence, the bond market can be highly sensitive to this report. The equity market is also sensitive to this report because it is the first clue on the nation's manufacturing sector, reported in advance of the Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey.
