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US: ADP Employment Report
| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
| Private Payrolls - M/M | 48,000 | 25,000 to 53,000 | 38,000 | 44,000 | 46,000 |
Highlights
The weak trend in private payrolls data continued in August, new hiring coming in at the slowest pace since January. Manufacturing, professional services, and information payrolls contracted, while education and health care, construction, and leisure and hospitality all showed solid hiring.
The ADP national employment report shows 38,000 jobs added to private payrolls in August after an upward revision to just 46,000 jobs created in July (previously +44,000). The August increase is nowhere near the consensus of up 48,000 in the Econoday survey of forecasters.
Annual wage growth remained is up 3.2 percent compared to August 2025, easing from +3.3 percent on an annual basis in July.
By sector, there was increased hiring in service-providing industries while goods-producers mostly cut jobs. Service-providers’ payrolls are up 48,000 in August. Goods-producers’ payrolls are down 10,000 in August.
Payrolls are up for two out of the three establishment types in August. Small firms (1-49 employees) added 3,000 jobs, medium firms (50-499) were flat, and large firms (500+) +34,000.
The ADP pay insights report noted that the median annual increase for pay for job-stayers is up 3.0 percent from August 2025, the same rate as in July. For job-changers, the August year-over-year increase is 4.7 percent. This is down from 4.8 percent in July.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Private payrolls expected up by a moderate 48K in August, pretty similar to 44K in July.
Definition
The national employment report from Automated Data Processing Inc. is computed from ADP payroll data and offers advance indications on the U.S. workforce. ADP's data cover more than 500,000 companies totaling more than 25 million employees. The report is produced by ADP Research Institute in collaboration with Stanford Digital Economy Lab.
Description
Market players have become accustomed to the excitement on employment Friday and realize the rich detail of the monthly employment situation can help set the tone for the entire month. While economists have improved their nonfarm payroll forecasts over the years, it is not unusual to see surprises on employment Friday. To that end, the ADP's national employment report can help improve the payroll forecast by providing information in advance of the employment report.
The employment statistics also provide insight on wage trends, and wage inflation is high on the list of enemies for the Federal Reserve. Fed officials constantly monitor this data watching for even the smallest signs of potential inflationary pressures, even when economic conditions are soggy. If inflation is under control, it is easier for the Fed to maintain a more accommodative monetary policy. If inflation is a problem, the Fed is limited in providing economic stimulus.
By tracking jobs, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the job market. If wage inflation threatens, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise; bond and stock prices will fall. No doubt that the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who watched the employment report and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events. In contrast, when job growth is slow or negative, then interest rates are likely to decline - boosting up bond and stock prices in the process.
