| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
| Quarter over Quarter | 0.2% | 0.2% to 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% |
| Year over Year | 1.1% | 1.1% to 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.9% |
Highlights
The economy expanded 0.2 percent in the fourth quarter, confirming the flash estimate and in-line with the median of an Econoday survey of economists’ forecasts. Compared to the fourth quarter of last year, the economy expanded by 1.2 percent.
The result marks a slowdown from the third quarter when the economy expanded 0.5 percent. For the year as a whole, economic growth was 0.9 percent, lower than the 1.1 percent recorded for 2025.
Net foreign trade was a net contributor to growth by 0.7 percent in the fourth quarter, as imports fell 1.1 percent, and exports rose 1.0 percent. The import results are more likely to be underlying lack of demand than a positive development. At the same time, inventory changes subtracted 0.8 percent from the overall result.
Household spending rose 0.4 percent during the fourth quarter, the fastest rate since the 0.9 percent recorded during the third quarter of 2024. This is an encouraging result as consumers have been reluctant to spend over the past year due to myriad uncertainties, including domestic politics and US tariffs.
Still, household disposable income was flat during the fourth quarter, and has eroded steadily since rising 0.4 percent in the first quarter. Overall purchasing power among consumers was 0.2 percent lower that it was in the third quarter.
The economy continues to struggle in the face of weak demand, and it remains to be seen whether the bump in household spending continues in the first quarter, although monthly indicators show continued challenges for domestic demand.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
GDP growth expected unrevised from 0.2 percent on quarter and 1.1 percent on year in Q4.