| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
| Quarter over Quarter | 0.2% | 0.1% to 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% |
| Year over Year | 1.2% | 1.1% to 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.9% |
Highlights
Economic growth slowed in the fourth quarter, weighed down by a negative contribution from inventories. The economy expanded 0.2 percent during the final three months of last year, down from 0.5 percent growth in the third quarter. Compared to the same quarter of 2024, growth was up 1.1 percent. For the whole year, the economy grew 0.9 percent.
The result was in-line with the median of an Econoday survey of economists’ forecasts which called for 0.2 percent quarter-on-quarter growth and 1.2 percent year-on-year.
Inventory changes contributed minus 1.0 percent to overall GDP during the fourth quarter. Companies have been working off inventories in order to maintain production lines. This suggests that demand remains weak. That contraction was almost completely offset by a 0.9 percent contribution from net trade. Imports fell 1.7 percent during the fourth quarter compared with a 1.5 percent increase during the third.
On the positive side, household spending increased by 0.3 percent from 0.1 percent in the third quarter. The highest outlays were on energy, up 0.8 percent quarter-on-quarter, and 0.5 percent for manufactured goods. Last year, consumers increased their spending by 0.4 percent compared to 1.0 percent in 2024. This underscores one of the main challenges facing the economy. Absent more robust consumer spending, growth will continue to muddle along.
There is no concealing the economy is struggling as seen by the inventory and imports components. Taken together, they still point towards weak demand.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The consensus looks for increases of 0.2 percent on quarter and 1.2 percent on year for Q4 after 0.5 percent on quarter and 0.9 percent on year in Q3.