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US: Import and Export Prices
| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
| Import Prices - M/M | -0.3% | -0.8% to 0.3% | 0.3% | 1.9% | 1.7% |
| Import Prices - Y/Y | 7.0% | 6.0% to 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.7% | |
| Export Prices - M/M | 0.8% | 0.6% to 0.9% | -0.6% | 1.3% | 1.2% |
| Export Prices - Y/Y | 10.2% | 11.2% |
Highlights
Import prices are up 0.3 percent in June from May while export prices are down 0.6 percent in June from May. That compares with the Econoday consensus that looked for import prices to decline by 0.3 percent, mostly due to falling fuel prices. The consensus looked for export prices up 0.8 percent on the month.
As it turns out, higher prices for nonfuel imports more than offset lower prices for fuel imports in June. Fuels and lubricants import prices are down only 0.4 percent in June following an increase of 12.6 percent in May. Prices for nonfuel imports are up 0.4 percent in June after rising by 0.7 percent in May.
On the export side, prices are down on the month for the first time since May 2025. Falling prices for nonagricultural exports more than offset higher prices for agricultural exports in June. Agricultural export prices are up 0.2 percent in June following a 0.9-percent rise in May. Nonagricultural export prices decline 0.7 percent in June, after increasing by 1.2 percent in May.
The report leaves a disappointing impression as falling fuel prices in June do not dampen imported goods inflation as much as markets and the Federal Reserve might have hoped, while prices for non-fuel items are on the rise. With fuel prices back up in July, prospects for inflation relief.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Import prices seen down 0.3 percent on the month and export prices up 0.8 percent.
Definition
Import price indexes are compiled for the prices of goods that are bought in the United States but produced abroad and export price indexes are compiled for the prices of goods sold abroad but produced domestically. These prices, which exclude tariffs and taxes, measure underlying inflationary trends in internationally traded products.
Description
Changes in import and export prices are a valuable gauge of inflation here and abroad. Furthermore, the data can directly impact the financial markets such as bonds and the dollar. The bond market is especially sensitive to the risk of importing inflation because it erodes the value of the principal (the original investment) which is paid back when the bond matures. It also decreases the value of the steady stream of interest rate payments on this type of security. Inflation leads to higher interest rates and that's bad news for stocks, as well. By monitoring inflation gauges such as import prices, investors can keep an eye on this menace to their portfolios.
