| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
| Index | 46.0 | 45.0 to 48.5 | 48.9 | 44.8 |
| Year-ahead Inflation Expectations | 4.8% | 4.7% to 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.8% |
Highlights
U.S. consumer sentiment plunged this month, with June's preliminary reading coming in at 48.9 vs. 44.8 in May and 49.8 in April. This is slightly better than the consensus of 46.0 in the Econoday survey of forecasters. Consumer sentiment improved by 9.2 percent, boosted by the slight easing in gasoline prices to start the month.
However, sentiment is down 19 percent from June 2025 as consumers still have a downbeat view of the economy and remain weighed down by affordability issues.
They feel burdened by the recent escalation in inflation and worry that higher inflation could remain stubborn going forward, particularly in the short run, the report said.
Overall, assessments and expectations of personal finances and business conditions all rose this month but it remains to be seen if that sentiment will hold when the final report is released.
Preliminary year-ahead inflation expectations dipped to 4.6 percent in June from 4.8 percent in May. Long-run inflation expectations in June declined to 3.4 percent from 3.9 percent last month.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The consensus sees a bit of a rebound to 46.0 in June from May’s extraordinarily low 44.8 but that is still a very low reading reflecting a gloomy consumer focused on surging living costs and rising inflation expectations. One-year inflation expectations are expected unchanged in June from May's 4.8 percent, up from 4.7 percent in April.
Definition
The University of Michigan's Consumer Survey Center questions households each month on their assessment of current conditions and expectations of future conditions. Preliminary estimates for a month are released at mid-month and are based on about 420 respondents. Final estimates are released near the end of the month and are based on about 600 respondents.
Description
The pattern in consumer attitudes and spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth.
This balance was achieved through much of the nineties and, in large part because of this, investors in the stock and bond markets enjoyed huge gains. It was during the late nineties that the consumer sentiment index hit its historic peak, reaching levels that were never matched during the subsequent 2001 to 2007 expansion nor during the long expansion following the Great Recession.
Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, so the markets are always dying to know what consumers are up to and how they might behave in the near future. The more confident consumers are about the economy and their own personal finances, the more likely they are to spend. With this in mind, it's easy to see how this index of consumer attitudes gives insight to the direction of the economy. Just note that changes in consumer confidence and retail sales don't move in tandem month by month.
