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GB: CBI Distributive Trades
| Actual | Previous | |
| Sales Balance | -29.0% | -32.0% |
Highlights
The distributive trades survey revealed that September marked the twelfth consecutive month of declining sales. Annual sales volumes slipped by 29 per cent, and expectations for October are bleak, with a projected 36 percent decline. Seasonal sales were also rated poor, with forecasts suggesting a sharper shortfall ahead. Particularly worrying is the reversal in online sales, which swung from modest growth in August (3 percent) to a steep contraction in September (minus 24 percent), signalling weakening consumer confidence across channels.
The broader distribution sector is also under strain, as wholesale sales fell more sharply (minus 30 percent), while motor trade sales plummeted dramatically (minus 67 percent). Stock levels remain elevated relative to weak demand, pointing to inefficiencies and cautious forward planning. Employers face additional pressure from rising business costs, with the CBI warning that high taxation and policy uncertainty risk deepening the downturn.
As the Autumn Budget looms, the sector's call for relief is clear: stabilise demand, curb further tax burdens, and foster an environment that restores consumer and business confidence. Without such measures, the UK retail sector risks extending its unprecedented year-long slump into a prolonged crisis.
Definition
The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) produces a monthly survey (and a more detailed quarterly report) analysing the performance of the UK retail, wholesale and motor trade sector. Volume sales, orders on suppliers, sales for the time of year and stocks are all covered and the quarterly survey also covers imports, selling prices, numbers employed, investment and business situation. Financial markets tend to concentrate on the CBI's annual sales growth measure as a leading indicator of the official retail sales report.
Description
This survey is a leading indicator of consumer spending because retailer and wholesaler sales are directly influenced by consumer buying levels. The monthly update provides a vital update on volume of sales, orders and stocks. Like the industrial survey, it carries significant weight in the formulation of economic policy at the Bank of England and within government as a highly respected barometer of high street trade. It is considered to be an advance indicator of retail sales although it is not well correlated with the official data on a monthly basis.