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GB: CBI Industrial Trends
| Actual | Previous | |
| Orders Balance | -27% | -33.0% |
Highlights
UK manufacturing continues to tread a difficult path, with the CBI's September 2025 industrial trends survey showing output volumes fell for a second consecutive quarter, though the pace of decline has slowed at minus 27. Output dropped across 13 of 17 sub-sectors, with chemicals, metal products and mechanical engineering most affected.
Forward-looking sentiment offers little relief, as firms anticipate further contraction into December. Order books remain weak, with both domestic (minus 27 percent) and export (minus 32 percent) orders well below their long-run averages, underscoring persistent demand challenges. Selling price expectations have softened markedly, easing to their lowest since October 2024 (4 percent), reflecting weaker pricing power as firms face subdued demand and possibly tighter competition.
Meanwhile, stock levels are more than adequate, signalling restrained production and cautious inventory management. Taken together, the survey points to a sector grappling with low demand, weaker pricing momentum, and structural fragility, even as cost pressures ease. Without a rebound in orders, the risk of continued contraction looms over year-end, raising concerns for the broader industrial outlook and the resilience of UK manufacturing.
Definition
The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) produces a monthly survey (and a more detailed quarterly report) analysing the performance of UK manufacturing industry. This is the UK's longest running qualitative business tendency survey. Questions relate to domestic and export orders, stocks, price and output expectations with the main market focus being the domestic orders balance. The survey is seen as a loose leading indicator of the official industrial production data.
Description
Started in 1958, this is the UK's longest-running private sector qualitative business tendency survey. The survey is used by policy makers along with those in the business community, academics and top analysts in financial markets. One of its key strengths is that it is released within ten days and prior to official statistics and includes data not covered by official sources. It is never revised. The data are also used by the European Commission's harmonized business survey of EU countries.
Frequency
Monthly and quarterly