| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
| Month over Month | -0.3% | -0.3% to 0.2% | -0.3% | -0.1% |
| Year over Year | 0.8% | 0.8% to 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
Highlights
Brazilian retail sales in July showed mixed signals, underscoring fragile consumer momentum. On a month-over-month basis, sales fell 0.3 percent, in line with consensus expectations but weaker than June's 0.1 percent decline. This marks the second consecutive monthly contraction, suggesting that household demand remains under pressure from tighter credit conditions and lingering inflationary effects on real incomes.
In contrast, the year-over-year comparison was more positive. Retail volumes rose 1.0 percent compared with July 2024, beating both the prior month's 0.3 percent increase and the consensus estimate of 0.8 percent pointing to resilience in consumer activity.
The divergence between monthly weakness and annual strength highlights ongoing volatility in Brazil's retail sector. Indeed, the July data suggest that Brazil's retail industry is experiencing a fragile recovery. Sustained improvement will depend on monetary conditions and stabilising consumer confidence in the second half of the year.