| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
| Month over Month | -0.15% | -0.20% to -0.10% | -0.11% | 0.26% |
| Year over Year | 5.10% | 5.0% to 5.11% | 5.13% | 5.23% |
Highlights
Brazil's consumer price index (CPI) for August 2025 showed a modest improvement over expectations, reflecting easing price pressures. On a month-over-month basis, inflation fell by 0.11 percent, aligning with the consensus outlook of a decline but proving slightly less steep than the anticipated minus 0.15 percent. This compares with the prior month's 0.26 percent rise, highlighting a notable reversal driven by discounted electricity costs and softer food prices.
On a year-over-year basis, CPI came in at 5.13 percent, just above the consensus forecast of 5.10 percent, though still lower than July's 5.23 percent. This suggests inflation is gradually moderating, but the persistence of elevated annual rates signals that underlying price pressures remain present.
Overall, the August data indicate inflation is slowing in line with market expectations, though not as sharply on a monthly basis as predicted. The year-over-year figure confirms progress towards price stability, albeit at a slightly higher pace than the consensus suggested. The results reinforce the view that easing in utility and food costs is beginning to filter through, though vigilance on core inflation trends remains necessary for Brazil's monetary outlook.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
CPI is expected down 0.15 percent in August from July after rising 0.26 percent in July from June. CPI is seen up 5.10 percent on year in August after rising by 5.23 percent in July from a year ago. The monthly decline in August is expected to reflect discounted electricity costs and softer food prices.