| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
| Month over Month | 1.0% | 0.5% to 1.3% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 1.0% |
| Year over Year | 3.2% | 2.8% to 3.7% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 2.9% |
Highlights
Japan's producer inflation, measured by the corporate goods price index (CGPI), accelerated to its highest level in nearly three years in April, driven by higher energy prices, non-ferrous metals and oil-derived products, including oil products and chemical products, as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East heightened supply concerns and pushed up raw material costs.
The index was also lifted by rising utility, food and beverage costs. Key energy prices rebounded sharply in April, with crude oil and coal products rising 5.3% after a revised 7.1% fall in March.
The CGPI rose 4.9% on the year in April, the highest since May 2023, when it increased 5.4%, and well above the median forecast of a 3.2% gain. That followed a revised 2.9% rise in March from an initial 2.6% increase. On a monthly basis, the CGPI climbed 2.3% in April after a revised 1.0% increase in March from the initial reading of a 0.8% rise.
Details:
Japan Apr corporate goods (producer) prices +4.9% y/y (Mar revised to +2.9%); median forecast +3.2%
Japan Apr CGPI y/y rise of +4.9% highest since May 2023, when it was +5.4%
Japan Apr producer prices +2.3% m/m, 8th straight rise (Mar revised to +1.0%); median forecast +1.0%
Japan Apr CGPI m/m rise led by oil products, chemical products, utilities, non-ferrous metals, food/beverages
Japan Apr producer inflation y/y rise led by easing but still high farm produce prices (+12.5% vs. Mar revised to +17.4% from +18.9%)
Japan Apr CGPI: key energy prices rise; crude oil/coal products (+5.3% vs. Mar revised to -7.1% from -7.3%)
Japan Apr CGPI: non-ferrous metals +37.9% vs. Mar revised to +31.5% from +31.1% amid rising demand and copper shortages
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Japan’s producer inflation, measured by the corporate goods price index (CGPI), is expected to rise in April at the fastest pace in a year, driven by gains in oil-derived products such as chemicals and in nonferrous metals amid persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have disrupted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
The yen’s weakness is also pointing to a re-emergence of inflationary pressure through higher import prices. Given this backdrop, the CGPI is expected to rise 3.2 percent on the year in April, the highest since a 3.9 percent increase in the same month in 2025. The index gained 2.6 percent in March after slowing to a near two-year low of 2.1 percent in February.
On a month-on-month basis, the CGPI is expected to rise 1.0 percent in April after increasing 0.8 percent in March.
Definition
The Producer Price Index (PPI) is a measure of the average price level for a fixed basket of capital and consumer goods paid by producers. Analysts look to the PPI for early signs of inflation in the production process.
Description
The producer price index focuses on the prices of goods transacted between companies. It was previously known as the corporate goods price index. The index reflects the price level for the supply and demand of individual industrial goods. This index is calculated by the BoJ Research and Statistics Department. Three indexes are contained in this release - the domestic producer index, the export price index and the import price index. It is the domestic index that market players follow. The PPI comprehensively tracks input price pressures; however, the PPI has a track record of increasing and not necessarily feeding through to the CPI because of weak demand. But if an increase in the PPI is followed by a rise in the CPI, concerns about inflation may prompt the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates.