| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
| Month over Month | 0.2% | -0.1% to 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Year over Year | 2.3% | 2.0% to 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.4% |
Highlights
Producer inflation in Japan eased further to 2.3% in January, as expected, after sliding to a 20-month low of 2.4% in December and being steady at 2.7% in November now that domestic rice supply shortages have been resolved, taming farm produce price gains. Fuel prices are also sliding on slower global demand and Japan's elimination of a decades-old top-up gasoline tax. These factors were partly offset by rising copper prices in light of supply disruptions, the outlook for strong Chinese demand and expected high requirements from the information technology industry.
The 2.3% increase in the corporate goods price index remains the slowest since 1.2% in April 2024. Producer prices have eased gradually in recent months after having hit a recent peak of 4.3% in each of February and March 2025 (the highest since 4.5% in June 2023).
Details:
Japan Jan corporate goods (producer) prices +2.3% y/y (Dec +2.4%); median forecast +2.3%
Japan Jan producer inflation annual rate hits 21-month low, slowest since +1.2% in Apr 2024
Japan Jan producer prices +0.2% m/m, 5th straight rise (Dec +0.1%); median forecast +0.2%
Japan Jan CGPI m/m rise led by non-ferrous metals, food/beverages, chemical products, metal scrap materials
Japan Jan producer inflation y/y rise led by easing but still high farm produce prices (+22.4% vs. Dec revised to +26.1% from +26.8%)
Japan Jan CGPI: key energy prices continue falling; crude oil/coal products (-12.9% vs. Dec revised to -8.3% from -8.6%)
Japan Jan CGPI: non-ferrous metals +33.0% vs. Dec revised to +22.2% from +22.1%
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Japan’s producer inflation is expected to rise on the year for a 59th consecutive month in January, but at the slowest pace in nearly two years and extending its deceleration for a second straight month. The underlying upward price trend remains intact, supported by firm food and nonferrous metals prices, although momentum has eased as domestic gasoline prices fall and rice prices hover around recent highs.
Producer inflation, measured by the corporate goods price index, is seen rising 2.3 percent on the year in January, down from a 2.4 percent increase in the previous month, when growth slowed to the weakest pace since April 2024. On a month-on-month basis, the CGPI is projected to rise 0.2 percent, marking a fifth straight monthly increase after a 0.1 percent gain in December.
Definition
The Producer Price Index (PPI) is a measure of the average price level for a fixed basket of capital and consumer goods paid by producers. Analysts look to the PPI for early signs of inflation in the production process.
Description
The producer price index focuses on the prices of goods transacted between companies. It was previously known as the corporate goods price index. The index reflects the price level for the supply and demand of individual industrial goods. This index is calculated by the BoJ Research and Statistics Department. Three indexes are contained in this release - the domestic producer index, the export price index and the import price index. It is the domestic index that market players follow. The PPI comprehensively tracks input price pressures; however, the PPI has a track record of increasing and not necessarily feeding through to the CPI because of weak demand. But if an increase in the PPI is followed by a rise in the CPI, concerns about inflation may prompt the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates.