| Consensus | Consensus Range | Previous | |
| Month over Month | 0.2% | -0.1% to 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Year over Year | 2.3% | 2.0% to 2.4% | 2.4% |
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Japan’s producer inflation is expected to rise on the year for a 59th consecutive month in January, but at the slowest pace in nearly two years and extending its deceleration for a second straight month. The underlying upward price trend remains intact, supported by firm food and nonferrous metals prices, although momentum has eased as domestic gasoline prices fall and rice prices hover around recent highs.
Producer inflation, measured by the corporate goods price index, is seen rising 2.3 percent on the year in January, down from a 2.4 percent increase in the previous month, when growth slowed to the weakest pace since April 2024. On a month-on-month basis, the CGPI is projected to rise 0.2 percent, marking a fifth straight monthly increase after a 0.1 percent gain in December.
Definition
The Producer Price Index (PPI) is a measure of the average price level for a fixed basket of capital and consumer goods paid by producers. Analysts look to the PPI for early signs of inflation in the production process.
Description
The producer price index focuses on the prices of goods transacted between companies. It was previously known as the corporate goods price index. The index reflects the price level for the supply and demand of individual industrial goods. This index is calculated by the BoJ Research and Statistics Department. Three indexes are contained in this release - the domestic producer index, the export price index and the import price index. It is the domestic index that market players follow. The PPI comprehensively tracks input price pressures; however, the PPI has a track record of increasing and not necessarily feeding through to the CPI because of weak demand. But if an increase in the PPI is followed by a rise in the CPI, concerns about inflation may prompt the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates.